Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021 election voting intention polls, constituency section

I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective.

On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate for another Scottish independence referendum and if Boris Johnson rejects this democratic mandate then I’d expect a major constitutional crisis which is always exciting and gives us plenty to bet upon.

Looking at the polling figures at the top we can see the SNP are in a commanding position with 30% leads in the constituency section and something similar in list section, which frankly given the SNP have been in continually in power since 2007 is astonishing, this is the sort of time governing parties become really unpopular. Some of it might be down to surge the government parties are getting during this pandemic but prior to the pandemic the the SNP vote share and lead was impressive.

So what betting strategy should we follow? Ladbrokes have a range of markets up,

If I had to choose I think I’d back the SNP winning a majority at 5/6, this mostly down to insipid leadership of the Unionist parties. As a fan of Ruth Davidson she wasn’t afraid of socking it to the SNP in a way others weren’t which explained the relatively impressive Tory results in 2015 and 2016, from what I’ve seen of Jackson Carslaw, he’s not as good as Ruth Davidson.

I suspect the only thing that might stop the SNP winning a majority is the SNP as we’ve see in the response to the recent intervention from Joanne Cherry.

If you’re not sure about my tip I think with interest rates on savings accounts at 0.01% you might want to back the SNP winning the most seats at 1/10.


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