Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…
New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019 Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland SNP 39% +2.1 CON 21% -7.6 LAB 20% -7.1 LD 13% +6.2 GRN 2% +1.8 BREX 5% Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo At the past…
Tonight's @YouGov poll on Scotland for @thetimesscot. Tories down to 3 seats in Scotland as the SNP surge to 51 seats in Westminster election. https://t.co/Ya700pzFuL pic.twitter.com/wkrCSsYDwI — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2019 Sacrificing some of your MPs is what Sir Humphrey would call a ‘courageous’ move. For a while it has been clear that the strategy (sic) of Boris Johnson and his team is to effectively sacrifice Tory MPs in Scotland and to the Lib Dems in Remain areas of…
The last one was in June There’s been a lot of GB voting intention polling since Mr Johnson became the new Tory leader and Prime Minister but none of it has been Scotland specific. One thing we do know is that is can be highly misleading keying the latest GB poll shares into Baxter and getting anything that is relevant to Scotland. North of the border, as we all know, is the part of the UK which has seen the…
Gloomy numbers for Boris as he considers going to the country One thing that is looking increasingly likely at the next election is that a lot more seats are going to change hands than usual. BJohnson’s party will be looking to make gains in Leave areas to offset likely losses to the resurgent LDs and in Scotland the SNP. This has been reinforced from more data from Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish poll featured in the chart above. There was no conventional…
While all the focus on today’s Ashcroft Scotland poll has been on growing support for independence the numbers that could have most impact on an early UK general election are in the chart above. How the national party leaders are rated according to the Ashcroft question asking respondents to give a rating from 0 to 100. One of the remarkable things about the GE2010 outcome was that Gordon Brown’s LAB did substantially better in Scotland than in the rest of…
Pressure for Irish unification could just be the beginning One of the features of Brexit, particularly a no deal one, is the impact that it could have on the integrity of the United Kingdom. There has been polling already in Northern Ireland about how people would feel there about the Union in the event of a no deal Brexit. The numbers don’t look good for those backing the union and under the Good Friday Agreement the Secretary of State for…
The start of trend as we get closer? The paper, the National, it should be pointed out is a strong supporter of the SNP but having said that this does raise a real issue in the one part of the UK where the Tories had real success at GE2017. Also today we’ve had this from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus which looks grim for LAB north of the border. As I’ve said repeatedly LAB has to recover in Scotland if it…