New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019
Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland
SNP 39% +2.1
CON 21% -7.6
LAB 20% -7.1
LD 13% +6.2
GRN 2% +1.8
Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo
At the past two general elections the part of the UK where there has seen the most seat churn has been in Scotland with its 59 seats and the signs are that this will continue next time. The country has its own electoral ecosystem and applying GB projections can be distorting. Just a few shifts in Scotland can see many gains and losses.
This is why Scotland-only polls which are relatively rare are such a big political event.
The projected seat changes are in the Sunday Times panel featured in the Tweet above and as can be seen LAB nearly gets wiped out north of the border. To put this in context Gordon Brown’s LAB at GE2010 won 41 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats. This poll would have it down to just one.
The Scottish Tories under Ruth Davidson came out of GE2017 with 12 gains making 13 Scottish seats overall at the last general election thus helping ameliorate the disastrous performance of TMay’s party in England and Wales. This latest poll sees the SNP taking eight of those seats back.
The Lib Dems, who now have a Scottish leader, hold up well in the poll and SNP hopes of taking Swinson’s Dunbartonshire East seat are not supported by these latest numbers which show an SNP to LD swing of 2%.
The other key findings today are support for Scottish independence reaching 50% when don’t knows are taken out and the preference for an independent Scotland to stay in the EU.