From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON
CON 26 -2.6
LAB 16 -11.1
LD 11 +4.2
SNP 44 +7.1
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019
This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder
The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be paid to Scotland only surveys. Scottish cross-breaks in GB really don’t give a full picture and this is where the seat calculators can slip up.
Ipsos-MORI, most accurate pollsters at the May Euros has just published the above which sees CON down with LAB down even more on what happened in June 2017. Then it will be recalled hat then the Tories jumped from one to 13 MPS, LAB from one to 7 MPs and the LDs up from one to 4 MPs. At the same time the SNP dropped from 56 MPs to 35.
This was something of a reverse compared with the GE2015 Scottish outcome which had the SNP winning 56 MPs north of the border with CON, LAB and the LDs picking up one each.
This polling suggests that big change there could be happening again with Sturgeon’s party the main beneficiary at the expense of LAB and CON.
If the Tories do indeed suffer losses there then Johnson’s party is going to have to make that up with gains in England and Wales something that current GB polling suggests they should do.