There’s a new YouGov poll out on Scottish matters. On the independence front, 30% are in favour on independence. This represents a decline of 1% since March and a decline of 3% since January. 54% are opposed to independence. This represents no change since March and an increase of 1% since January. However it is over two years until the actual referendum, there is a lot of time for the polling to move. Both sides should remember that a year before the…
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Ipsos-MORI There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll of voting intentions for the Scottish parliament and these show the same trends that we saw in the Scottish local elections on May 3rd. Scottish Labour moving up with the SNP moving down. A big loser since the last poll at the start of the year has been the Scottish Lib Dems. The shares, in common with MORI’s current practice are based on those certain to vote: SNP 45:LAB 32: CON 12: LD 6….
James Kelly on the pro-independence campaign If there is to be a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum, a prerequisite is surely that the Yes campaign itself is as broadly-based as possible, and extends well beyond the SNP’s ranks. The potential is certainly there – the Scottish Green Party is supportive of independence, and its charismatic leader Patrick Harvie attended the Yes launch, where he was accorded virtual parity with Alex Salmond. The Scottish Socialist Party will also be…
How changing the question added 16 points to NO’s lead There’s new polling out from TNS-BMRB into the form of wording for the Scottish Independence referendum due to take place in October 2014. The firm effectively carried out four separate polls of Scottish voters putting different wording to each. The SNP’s proposed question received the highest level of agreement with independence: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes 40% No 60% Exchanging the word ‘agree’ for…
Three weeks into the campaign and NO increases lead There’s a new telephone poll from MORI of Scottish voters and the results are not encouraging for Alex Salmond or his party in their effort to secure a YES vote in the 2014 Independence referendum. On top of that the SNP leader sees a decline in his satisfaction ratings although they still remain positive. These are some of my Tweets. MORI Scotland: Salmond’s leadership ratings see sharp drop. He’s down a…
and the 2015 General election? The Sunday Times reported over the weekend that the no campaign was in disarray, due to major unionist parties donors not willing to donate to the no campaign. Willie Haughey, a tycoon who has given Labour about £1.3m since 2003, is the latest in a series of wealthy unionist businessmen refusing to back the No campaign. Sir Jack Harvie, a Scottish construction tycoon who has raised about £16m for the Tories, has already made it…
Why did the SNP make Glasgow their key target? In our PB prediction poll a couple of weeks ago a reasonable majority of participants said that the SNP would win control of the city of Glasgow. That was understandable given the hype that was coming from north of the border. For weeks this has been paraded as Alex Salmond’s big objective for May 3rd and the latest news is that the SNP has fallen short by some distance. In fact…