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The latest Ipsos-Mori polling on Scottish Independence

The latest Ipsos-Mori polling on Scottish Independence

The Nationalists Strike Back Ipsos-Mori have polled for the Times on Scottish Independence, the changes are from their last poll in October. The poll, which asked the same question as the one now certain to be on the referendum ballot paper next year — Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes 34% (+4) No 55% (-3) Undecided 11% (-1) What appears to be behind the increase the support in Independence is according to the Times’ article is an extraordinary surge…

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Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

BBC news What would pulling out do to the independence debate? Identity is one of the most potent forces in politics; the sense of who we are individually and collectively. That’s why the unusually strongly-worded statement from Rangers’ chief executive this week in response to the football authorities’ proposal there potentially brings two of the stronger identities into conflict: those of nationality and football club support. The threat from Rangers to leave if a restructure leaves them in the bottom…

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Scotland’s most accurate pollster suggests that Alex Salmond’s magic might be on the wane

Scotland’s most accurate pollster suggests that Alex Salmond’s magic might be on the wane

Ipsos-MORI blows for Alex Salmond/SNP/YES in the week the referendum deal was signed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012 In the week that the referendum deal was signed…. There’s a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll for the Times this morning that has support for independence declining, the SNP’s Holyrood vote share down, and a reduction in Alex Salmond’s approval ratings. Independence At the start of 2012 the firm, which came top of the 2011 Holyrood polling accuracy table, recorded…

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A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

Have the polls “consistently” shown that Scots are opposed to independence? Something that I know has privately frustrated the SNP in recent weeks and months is their perception that the media, especially south of the border but to some extent in Scotland as well, have bought into the anti-independence side’s narrative about what the polls on the referendum are showing. Newsnight’s coverage of the “treaty” between the Scottish and UK governments might stand as a case in point. Kirsty Wark…

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The SNP loses the battle for a multi-question referendum

The SNP loses the battle for a multi-question referendum

BBC News But 16 and 17 year olds will be able to vote The BBC is reporting that a broad agreement has been reached between Westminster and Edinburgh on the Scottish independence referendum which is expected to take place in two years time. According to the report “the SNP is understood to have accepted a single question referendum, as opposed to two questions including one on greater powers for the Scottish Parliament, whilst the UK government has abandoned its opposition…

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Will Westminster stage the Independence referendum before Alex does?

Will Westminster stage the Independence referendum before Alex does?

The Sunday Times are running a story that, if Alex Salmond doesn’t agree to a single question referendum, then Westminster will organise the referendum for next year, and not devolve the necessary section 30 order allowing Holyrood to organise a legal referendum. SNP plans to hold a referendum plans without the necessary order, would leave the result open to years of legal challenges, something that SNP strategists acknowledge as very problematic, that needs to be avoided. The Conservative, Labour and Liberal…

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How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

James Kelly looks at the various scenarios. One thing is for sure – Scotland will be returning MPs to Westminster at the next general election, whenever it is held.  On the SNP’s proposed timetable, a Yes vote in the 2014 referendum would not result in an independent Scottish state coming into being until 2016. It is inconceivable that Scotland could remain part of the United Kingdom, even for a few months, without parliamentary representation.  Perhaps a provisional arrangement might be…

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How will the Olympics affect the Independence debate?

How will the Olympics affect the Independence debate?

Does a successful Team GB underline ‘we’re stronger together’? PB reported earlier this week on a Comres poll which reported an upsurge in support for the Olympics now they’re underway (and taken before Britain started winning golds). It also reported on a YouGov poll which recorded a slight firming-up north of the border of opposition to independence, where more than half support the maintenance of the union, against less than a third favouring independence – an increase in the gap…

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