Now something for the NO campaigners to smile about A new Populus poll for the Times just out has a YES 47% to NO 53% split amongst decided voters. (NOTE that in line with PB practice the figure were use are re-percentaged so proper comparison can be made with other surveys.) This will come as a blow to the YES camp just after a YouGov poll suggested that opinion was moving in the other direction. As yet we have not…
Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only YouGov/Sun Times 01/04/11 52 (+1) 48 (-1) Findings weighted according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll on March 18. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 51 (-4) 49 (+4) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 3. Politically weighted via past…
Will we get polling from the high turnout province? In almost all the discussions on the May 5th referendum nobody seems to be considering that part of the UK that almost always has the highest turnout in elections of all kinds – Northern Ireland. For on the same day there are the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly where, four years ago, the turnout exceeded 63%. If that’s repeated it could easily be double the overall average turnout level for…
Is UKIP felt to be not quite respectable? Last month UKIP decided that it should campaign for a YES result in the May 5th referendum. In a statement the party said:“.. we recognise that AV does enable all voters to register their first preference vote with the candidate of their conscience, and so demolishes the ‘wasted vote’ issue. Under AV, UKIP could potentially achieve a much higher share of the vote through ‘honest’ first preferences.” I’m sure that’s a correct…
Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 32 41 10 17 Angus Reid/ 04/03/11 33 41 10 16 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 28/02/11 32 43 11 14 Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 33 41 12 13 Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 15 Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 12 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 11 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38…
My conversation with the ex-MP after a day’s canvassing Over the weekend I had a long phone conversation with a former MP (not Lib Dem) who is campaigning hard for his party for the local elections in May. He told me that to test the water on AV he began asking about the referendum which is on the same day. The responses, he recalled, were striking. Not only did the electors he spoke to not have view a significant segment…
Could the new system dilute the UKIP threat? I don’t usually pay much attention to local by-election results but this one from last night might cause some concerns in Tory ranks. A seat in Tunbridge Wells is lost following a huge surge in the UKIP vote while the Lib Dem support was not much down on what happened on general election day last year. It doesn’t take a skilled mathematician to work out that if the election had been under…
Is the grey vote going to win it for NO? Although we’ve been getting conflicting messages on the AV referendum there’s one big trend that’s seen in all the surveys where the actual question that’s on the ballot will be put – the older you are the least likely it is that you want change. I’ve just extracted the split, repercentaged to show just decided voters, of the oldest age group from all the latest polls. Normally you shouldn’t read…