Can the oldies bring a smile to the NO campaigners’ faces?

Can the oldies bring a smile to the NO campaigners’ faces?

Is the grey vote going to win it for NO?

Although we’ve been getting conflicting messages on the AV referendum there’s one big trend that’s seen in all the surveys where the actual question that’s on the ballot will be put – the older you are the least likely it is that you want change.

I’ve just extracted the split, repercentaged to show just decided voters, of the oldest age group from all the latest polls.

Normally you shouldn’t read too much into sub-samples like this on an individual poll basis – but when all the surveys point to the same picture then you can be more confident about a trend espcially when, as in in the table below, precisely the same question was put.

Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date Age segment YES % NO %
YouGov/SkyNews 09/03/11 60plus 45 55
ComRes/Indy on Sunday 09/03/11 65plus 36 64
Angus Reid/ 03/03/11 55plus 40 60
Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 65plus 38 62
ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 65plus 38 62

The big challenge of all of this for YES is that the older you are the more likely it is that you will vote.

Mike Smithson

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