The Tories move to their lowest level with Angus Reid

The Tories move to their lowest level with Angus Reid

Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH %
Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 32 41 10 17
Angus Reid/ 04/03/11 33 41 10 16
Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15
Angus Reid/Sunday Express 28/02/11 32 43 11 14
Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 33 41 12 13
Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 15
Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 12
Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 13
Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 11
Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 11

And in the referendum – another pollster has the gap narrowing

Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only
Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 51 (-4) 49 (+4) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 3. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. Online
YouGov/Sun 18/03/11 51 (-3) 49 (+3) This is first YouGov poll using new format of questioning with firm weighting responses according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll for SkyNews on March 9 which which had no turnout question . Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.
ComRes/Indy on Sunday 09/03/11 50 50 Shows shares from ComRes data-set not press release. Onlne
Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 55 45 Phone poll with only those “certain to vote” included.
ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 51 49 Phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting

Angus Reid has a new poll out which doesn’t have move much movement except to see the blues drop another point to their lowest level with the Canadian online firm since the general election. That election looks set to take place in more than four years using a voting system that has yet to be resolved and on a smaller number of slightly larger constituencies.

With the referendum in just five weeks time Angus Reid also had an AV question which shows a sharp move towards NO amongst decided voters.

Just look at the table above and all three of the most recent polls have either the two sides level or it being on 51-49.

Although the movement is slight the trend is is all in one direction and this election is becoming extremely difficult to predict – particularly as there’s been so little campaigning and the news is dominated by the big international stories.

Full details of the poll should be on the pollster’s website overnight.

Mike Smithson

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