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First off from Opinium sees UKIP & GRN up CON down Trend chart from the Opinium polling series for the Observer pic.twitter.com/sAw3JBaD3D — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2015 Opinium for Observer has LAB with 5% lead LAB 33= CON 28-4 UKIP 20+3 LD 7-1 GRN 6+2 With Opinium just out there’ve now been 7 polls since the Ashcroft CON 6% lead survey that was published on Monday afternoon and there’s been nothing from any of the firms that have…

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Just over half will stick with Farage’s party The overnight TNS-BMRB poll had some data that I’d not seen before – linking what those sampled said they did in the Euros last May with their current GE15 voting intention. In that election, of course, UKIP ended up with the most votes and most MEPs. The latest polling is moderately helpful to the Tories given that just over a fifth say they’ll be backing the blue team in the general election….

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Politicalbetting's Marf on the debate over the NHS pic.twitter.com/OJg40M2kU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 LAB and EdM seen to be more concerned How important do you think the NHS is to the parties and leaders? pic.twitter.com/BCwUh9zN3g — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 14, 2015 Burnham’s comments resonating much more than Hunt’s How Andy Burnham comments on NHS resonating far more with voters than those of Health Sec Hunt @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/VgybOGbW85 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2015 Where…

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New ComRes poll for ITV finds that the NHS now the main concern of voters – jumping above immigration pic.twitter.com/OfDVtXI3JA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2015 Where will it be on May 7th – that’s what matters

Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking. The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%. Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period –…

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Lab, LD and Green all up; Con and UKIP down Christmas shopping, parties and other seasonal distractions may be nothing but credit card bills now but in and amongst all that fun – forced or genuine – a rather interesting swing was taking place in the polls. Before getting on to that, let’s deal with a potential objection. December, like August, is a non-political month and as such the argument goes that the public isn’t paying much attention to politics…

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