Is Chris Huhne right to start dancing in the streets? After an extraordinary day on the Lib Dem leadership markets and the busiest forty-eight hours since PB.C started the big question is how much can we rely on YouGov – the internet pollster? After the firm’s final poll before the December announcement on David Cameron’s election I raised my doubts about the YouGov approach. What worried me was that the same group of people, in that case Tory members, was…
The informant behind my article on the private YouGov survey on the Lib Dem leadership has come back to me. He says he has rechecked his source (who he trusts absolutely) and is convinced that the YouGov figures are genuine. It will be noted that the comment in Peter Kellner’s email was very specific – “that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong”. There seem to be…
But Times husting survey has Huhne ahead I have just recieved the following email from Peter Kellner, the head of YouGov. Mike In common with other polling organisations, YouGov has a strict policy of not commenting on purported leaks of private surveys. However, on this occasion, I have been authorised by our client to say that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong. In order to prevent…
“Ming just 6% ahead” Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation. My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name. I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences…
Where’s the YouGov and Populus polling information? This morning I had thought that there would be two stories competing for attention – the February survey by Populus for the Times and that much-trailed YouGov poll of members on the Lib Dem leadership. There’s no sign of the latter in the online versions of the papers and the Times report on the Populus survey focuses on attitudes to the Muslim cartoon row with no mention of the latest party shares. Maybe…
Candidates poll shows the ex-MEP is getting closer A poll of 50 Lib Dem candidates for the More4 News on digital TV has Campbell with 22 backers, Hunhe with 17 and Hughes on just 7. As yet we have no further details of the survey except that those who took part in the survey were “candidates at the last General Election in marginal constituencies”. But this is not a survey of Lib Dem members and it is hard to to…
Cameron gets approval rating of nearly 2-1 The results are out of a massive poll involving face to face interviews with more than 2,000 people by MORI. The main party shares based on those “certain to vote” are CON 40% (+1): LAB 38%(-1): LD 17%(+2). The comparisons are with the Sun Mori poll eleven days ago. Asked how they saw David Cameron’s performance as Tory leader 31% were positive and 17% against. In an excellent commentary on the MORI site…
But why are men still unconvinced? One of the main reasons why Tony Blair came to power in 1997 and was returned in 2001 and 2005 was his success with the female vote. From a situation where women were traditionally more Conservative than men the political gender balance was completely changed. But might that all be going back? For from the latest detailed polling data there are signs that the Tory recovery is coming from a huge change in female…