The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…
CON 39 % (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And it reports the lowest Tory share since May New is just coming in of the latest ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph which has the lead down to just 9% and will provide encouragement for Brown Central. It means that the last six published polls have all had Labour in the 30s with the last four of them putting the Tories under 40. This does look like a trend….
Betfair Politics The chart above is from the Betfair line market where punters have bets at evens with each other on what the parties will get at the coming election. Once you get used to how it works it’s quite a neat form of betting. As can be seen the past three months have not shown much movement apart from the Tory wobble in the past week following the spate of polls having both them and Labour in the 30s….
Ipsos-MORI Is it really so different in the marginals? I’m just catching up with the Ipsos-MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polls which have been highlighted by Anthony Wells at UKPR who is suggesting it provides further evidence that opinion is moving differently in the LAB>CON marginals. For what MORI has done is not only to show the aggregate data but to identify the shares by seat category with a particular emphasis on the marginals – something that is…
CON SPREAD RANGES —– Sporting Index 334 – 339 ExtraBet 342 – 350 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 222 – 227 ExtraBet 211 – 220 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES —- Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53 – 54 Betfair Line market There’ve been some sharp moves on the betting markets in the wake of the latest polling. Our PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate a result based on betting prices, has the projected…
And has it missed the main story from its poll? Let there be no doubt – the latest poll from ComRes for the Independent showing that the Tory lead is down to just 7% is bad news for Cameron and his team – particularly as it follows a series of such poll findings. So why the devil has the paper ignored the main story from the poll it spent good money on and splashed a finding that does not even…
Ipsos-Mori This has just come out from Ipsos-MORI – a polling question that I quite like and have featured before. The last time this was put was in July 2008 which was just about the biggest low for Brown when all the talk was of Miliband (D) launching a coup to oust him. The poll took place just after Labour lost Glasgow East. You can play about with the numbers as you wish – and no doubt people will draw…
Mail on Sunday Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage? Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down – see here. Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and…