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Category: Polls

Could there be celebrations like this for another 7 years?

Could there be celebrations like this for another 7 years?

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SkyNews What could it do to the SNP’s re-election chances? It’s exactly a year ago today that the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, was freed on compassionate grounds by the SNP-led Scottish government after receiving a doctor’s report saying that he had only got three months to live. We all remember the row and how it has continued to erupt as we saw during David Cameron’s visit to Washington last month. One report today suggests that…

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Will this be the week the government’s ratings go negative?

Will this be the week the government’s ratings go negative?

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Ipsos-MORI Will the cross-over happen by Day 100? This is a week that’s going to be full of symbolism for the coalition government. Firstly in midweek it will reach the 100 day mark which is always a point for reflection and assessment and already we have seen the media using the peg of this milestone to start looking back. Secondly David Cameron is on holiday in Cornwall leaving his deputy, the Lib Dem Nick Clegg, notionally “in charge” whatever that…

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Could October’s polls point to a Labour majority?

Could October’s polls point to a Labour majority?

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New Leader Pre-election ICM Post-election ICM Uplift John Smith 1992 35 39.33 4.33 Tony Blair 1994 44.66 47.66 3 William Hague 1997 31.4 (GE result) 25 -6.4 Iain Duncan Smith 2001 29.66 29 -0.66 Michael Howard 2003 32.66 33.33 0.66 David Cameron 2005 37.33 39.33 2 Gordon Brown 2007 31 39 8 Mili-E/Mili-D 2010 ?? ?? ? What’ll be the scale of the new leader bounce? If the next election is fought on the current boundaries then the uniform swing…

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ComRes makes it 39/33/16

ComRes makes it 39/33/16

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Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD ComRes/Independent 08/08/10 39 33 16 YouGov/Sun Times 06/08/10 42 36 13 YouGov/Sun 02/07/10 42 38 12 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 Only the third non-YouGov poll in six weeks The online pollster, YouGov,…

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YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

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Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun Times 30/07/10 42 38 12 YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Is this a reaction to the Robinson programme? The latest daily poll from the YouGov panel has the Lib Dems down to one of their lowest shares…

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Polling Labour’s leadership election

Polling Labour’s leadership election

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Candidate Unions actual Unions YouGov Members actual Members YouGov Cruddas 27.27% 15% 13.89% 12% Harman 13,05% 16% 19.62% 17% Johnson 13.65% 26% 24.24% 24% Benn 14.79% 22% 12.81% 24% Hain 19.92% 15% 14.43% 13% Blears 11.31% 7% 14.97% 9% YouGov in the 2007 Deputy race The above shows the YouGov projections and the actual first round shares in the final YouGov poll before the 2007 Labour deputy race. As can be seen the big variance was in the union section…

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Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

Are people “mis-remembering” about voting Lib Dem?

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Do more say they were Yellow than actually were? We all know the big story of the general election and the polls. When the votes were counted the 23.6% GB share that the Lib Dems chalked up was much smaller than all the pre-election polls. At one point YouGov had Clegg’s party with a four point lead on 34%. Yet eleven weeks on from May 6th an interesting trend has developed. When pollsters ask how people voted they invariably find…

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How votes have churned since the election

How votes have churned since the election

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Latest voting intention CON-May 6 LAB-May 6 LD-May 6 Conservative 83% 2% 6% Labour 1% 80% 15% Lib Dem 2% 2% 54% UKIP – 1% 1% Greens 1% 1% 3% BNP – – 3% Would not vote 3% 2% 2% Won’t say/don’t know 10% 12% 18% Some data from Ashcroft’s 6,000 sample Populus poll The above table showing current voting intention linked to what respondents said they did at the election is from the 6,000 sample Populus poll of marginals…

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