How votes have churned since the election

How votes have churned since the election

Latest voting intention CON-May 6 LAB-May 6 LD-May 6
Conservative 83% 2% 6%
Labour 1% 80% 15%
Lib Dem 2% 2% 54%
UKIP 1% 1%
Greens 1% 1% 3%
BNP 3%
Would not vote 3% 2% 2%
Won’t say/don’t know 10% 12% 18%

Some data from Ashcroft’s 6,000 sample Populus poll

The above table showing current voting intention linked to what respondents said they did at the election is from the 6,000 sample Populus poll of marginals in England that was funded by the Tory peer, and owner of ConsrervativeHome, Michael Ashcroft. Morus discussed the main findings in a thread here a few days ago.

Although it was restricted to respondents in just 200 English constituencies the size of the sample, six times larger than standard ICM, ComRes or MORI phone polls, makes it significant.

It provides an interesting snap-shot of how voters might have changed their view since the election on May 6 and the formation of the coalition.

As we’ve seen in other polling both Labour and the Tories are doing attracting more support than they are losing. It’s the Lib Dems that are taking the hit with just 54% of May 6 voters saying they’ll do so again. Of the balance a fair slice is taken up by the won’t say/don’t knows with 15% switching to Labour and 6% to the Tories.

Interestingly both the BNP and the Greens do quite well from the yellows. On the positive side for Clegg’s party they are picking up 2% of both the general election Tory vote and Labour vote.

What should please the blue team here is that in spite of all the noise UKIP is barely registering. The idea that the coalition could prompt a slippage of vote from the Tory right flank does not appear to be happening.

To repeat – this was restricted to a specific set of seats and does not include Scotland or Wales.

Today I’m hoping that we’ll see the latest MORI poll.

MORI Just out
CON 40
LAB 38
LD 14

So seriously good news for the reds and bad news for the yellows.

Mike Smithson

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