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Category: Polls

YouGov reports first lead for YES for six months

YouGov reports first lead for YES for six months

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov/Sun No2AV 17/02/11 34 30 Bespoke wording – which might have been changed for this latest poll (see updates below) Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot Details of the latest YouGov poll…

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New Populus poll has 12 point lead for YES

New Populus poll has 12 point lead for YES

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot But a different…

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Will the grey vote save the day for NO?

Will the grey vote save the day for NO?

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The referendum: What are the polls telling us? Looking at the the detailed data from recent AV polls there are two clear trends – the older age groups (55+) are much less likely to support change and Labour voters from the general election are the most undecided. Thursday’s survey for Angus Reid had YES leading with a 37-22 point split. Yet amongst the 55+ group the lead was down to just one point with YES on 34 and NO on…

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Has YouGov failed to keep up with the Mirror’s decline?

Has YouGov failed to keep up with the Mirror’s decline?

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Newspaper segments January 2011 segment circulation YouGov weighting (Mirror/Record=1) Circulation based weighting (Mirror/Record=1) YouGov weighting / Circulation based weighting Mail + Express 2,776,443 0.97 1.85 0.52 Daily Mirror/Daily Record 1,500,969 1 1 1 Sun+Star 3,736,133 1.38 2.49 0.55 Guardian+Independent+I 597,815 0.20 0.40 0.49 FT+Times+Telegraph 1,491,501 0.54 0.99 0.55 Should the pollster look urgently at its newspaper weightings A couple of weeks ago the former head pollster at ICM, Nick Sparrow, highlighted in his monthly PB column the reliance that pollsters…

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Angus Reid reports a 15 point lead for YES

Angus Reid reports a 15 point lead for YES

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 22 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot NO moves one point closer There a new Angus Reid AV referendum…

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Has the NO to AV campaign got a message problem?

Has the NO to AV campaign got a message problem?

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Is this why it’s floundering in the polls? If the government’s business managers are able to get the referendum and constituencies bill through both houses then the referendum of voting reform will be put to the British people on May 5th – just eleven weeks away. Away from Westminster the big developments in the past few days have been a move to the YES camp in the polling. With two firms asking very different questions showing the same trend then…

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Boost for coalition in new ICM poll

Boost for coalition in new ICM poll

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News of the World (£) But what does this new format really mean? There’s a new ICM poll reported in today’s News of the World (£) which does not apparently include a voting intention question. Instead the phone pollster asked a sample of 2,036 which of these would be best for Britain – Con/Lib Dem coalition (32%); Labour (26%); Neither (29%); Don’t know (12%). This has not been asked before in this format so we have nothing to compare it…

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Nick Sparrow’s February PB Polling Column

Nick Sparrow’s February PB Polling Column

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Smoke and Mirrors. The art of poll weighting So far, in 2011, the polls have had the Conservatives as high as 41% and as low as 32%, Labour as high as 44% and as low as 39%, meanwhile the estimate of support for the LibDems has ranged from 15% to just 7%. Such variation can suggest only one of two things; either the electorate is in a nervous state of flux or the methods used by the polling companies produce…

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