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Category: Polls

YouGov Wales: An example of the “Mirror Magnifier”?

YouGov Wales: An example of the “Mirror Magnifier”?

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How 6.9% of the sample was worth 21%? Last Wednesday YouGov reported that Labour were on 48% for the Welsh Assembly elections on May 5th and were possibly heading for an overall majority They might well be but ftom the initial detail that the pollster released I was uncomfortable by the heavy weighting uplift that Labour had in the poll and the sizeable down-scale of the Tory vote. Now with the availability today of the full weightings data we can…

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Can the oldies bring a smile to the NO campaigners’ faces?

Can the oldies bring a smile to the NO campaigners’ faces?

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Is the grey vote going to win it for NO? Although we’ve been getting conflicting messages on the AV referendum there’s one big trend that’s seen in all the surveys where the actual question that’s on the ballot will be put – the older you are the least likely it is that you want change. I’ve just extracted the split, repercentaged to show just decided voters, of the oldest age group from all the latest polls. Normally you shouldn’t read…

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Is the band of the “betrayed ones” growing?

Is the band of the “betrayed ones” growing?

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ComRes finds more 2010 LD voters than LAB ones Someone, no doubt, will correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that this weekend’s ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday represents something of a first – when respondents were asked how they voted in the general election last May more said they had opted for the Lib Dems than Labour. Given, as we all know, the final GB shares were CON 37%: LAB 29.75: LD 23.6% then there’s either…

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NO 4pc ahead with ComRes but 8pc behind with YouGov

NO 4pc ahead with ComRes but 8pc behind with YouGov

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Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES (FOR AV) % NO (FOR FPTP) % Methodology note YouGov/SkyNews 09/03/11 54 (+2) 46 (-2) Repercentaged by PB to show only decided voters. Comparisons are with last similar poll for NO2AV on March 2. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. ComRes/Indy on Sunday 09/03/11 48 (-9) 52 (+9) Repercentaged by PB to show only decided voters. Online with Westminster turnout filter. No…

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Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?

Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?

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Welsh Assembly election poll (YouGov/ITV) Result 2007 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 Constituency vote       Labour 32% 45% 48% Conservative 22% 21% 20% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% Others 8% 6% 7% Regional vote       Labour 30% 41% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% UKIP 4% 4% 5% Green 4% 2% 4% Others 8% 4% 2% There’s a new YouGov poll out for…

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Was the LD collapse all predicted in pre-election polls?

Was the LD collapse all predicted in pre-election polls?

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How would you feel if the election outcome was a coalition between the Tories and the Lib Dems (YouGov: May 1 2010) All voters % CON voters % LD voters % I would be delighted 6 6 11 I would be dismayed 51 34 43 I wouldn’t mind 31 52 47 37 Don’t know 13 8 9 Is the amazing thing that the yellows are not doing worse? Thanks to Peter Kellner for picking up this – a finding from…

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Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

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Canadian pollsters advise voters to be wary of polls! Research-live, the online newspaper for the UK market research industry reports that the Marketing Research & Intelligence Association (MRIA) in Canada has been driven to take out a full-page advertisement in the The Hill Times (a political weekly) aimed at reversing criticism of opinions polls. It seems the ad is needed because the pollsters themselves have been blabbing about the state of their own industry. Some it seems have been quoted…

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