|Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot||Date||YES (FOR AV) %||NO (FOR FPTP) %||Methodology note|
|YouGov/SkyNews||09/03/11||54 (+2)||46 (-2)||Repercentaged by PB to show only decided voters. Comparisons are with last similar poll for NO2AV on March 2. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.|
|ComRes/Indy on Sunday||09/03/11||48 (-9)||52 (+9)||Repercentaged by PB to show only decided voters. Online with Westminster turnout filter. No specific AV turnout question|
|Angus Reid/||03/03/11||55||45||Repercentaged by PB to show only decided voters. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type.|
|Ipsos-MORI Reuters||20/02/11||55||45||Repercentaged by MORI to show only decided voters, phone poll, only those â€œcertain to voteâ€ included.|
|ICM/Guardian||20/02/11||51||49||Repercentaged by MORI to show only decided voters, phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting|
Conflicting numbers from two online pollsters
With just seven a half weeks to go before the referendum on the voting system for general elections there are two conflicting polls out.
The first, by YouGov for SkyNews, has a split of 54-46 to YES amongst decided voters. The second, from ComRes for the Indy on Sunday makes it YES 48 to NO’s 52.
As has now become the standard practice on PB the numbers are re-percentaged to include only decided voters, which is the way that normal voting intention polls are presented.
Both new polls provide sharp contrasts with what we’ve seen before from both pollsters. YouGov on Tuesday reported a massive 17% lead for NO when its controversial long question was put. This latest poll uses the wording that is on the ballot.
The last ComRes poll had YES 14% ahead so this marks a very big turnaround. ComRes did weight for turnout but used the responses for for its standard Westminster voting intentions.
YouGov’s YES lead is the biggest yet from the firm – ComRes’s NO lead is the first poll from any firm that has produced a negative when the full wording on the ballot was used.
it is perhaps worth noting that there have been only two polls in all of this where a separate referendum “cetainty to vote” question has been asked – MORI and ICM
The one message from all of this is that this election is going to be very close and hard to predict.
On the Westminster voting intentions ComRes have LAB 40: CON 37: LD 11. Compared with the last ComRes online poll the Tories are up one, Labour are down 2 with the LDs no change.
URGENT UPDATE 2115 The ComRes figures in the table above are based on what was in the press release that was sent out. The full dataset, now available, has different numbers suggesting that the two sides are almost neck and neck. I am seeking clarification.