Could YES really be ahead? The above message from Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, was posted less than an hour ago and has even affected the betting markets. His suggestion that there is a poll about with a YES lead of one point is extraordinary giving yesterday’s numbers from ComRes showing a 66-34 split to NO. My understanding is that there are three polls to come later today – Angus Reid, ICM and YouGov. Could it be that Ben has…
And the yellows move to their highest with ComRes for 6 months? With just a day’s campaigning left before Thursday crucial electoral test for all the parties the Lib Dem have moved to their highest ComRes share since last October while Labour drops four points to 37%. The change shown on the chart are with the last ComRes phone poll at the end of March. This isn’t to be confused with the firm’s online polling series. Following on from recent…
A new poll for STV by TNS-BMRB is just out with the SNP making more progress. The changes on the chart are with the last poll from the firm at the end of March. The full numbers taking into account both sections are:- Constituencies SNP 45 (+8) Lab 27 (-11) Con 15 (nc) LD 10 (+3) List SNP 38 (+3) Lab 25 (-10) Con 16 (+2) LD 9 (+1) Green 8 The fieldwork finished yesterday. These are dramatic changes and…
How’ll the firms deal with the “Ratty factor”? I love Marf’s exclusive cartoon for PB this morning – particularly Ratty’s graffiti “Who cares”? For that sentiment, surely, represents perhaps the biggest fear for the pollsters whose final surveys will be tested against real results this Friday. People might respond “Yes” or “No” when called in a survey and they might say they are 100% certain of voting but can we really believe them? The figures from the detailed data are…
And the firm has Scotland tightening as well The Sunday before the May 5th elections and from the information that’s available as I write YouGov has YES closing the gap from 18 points last Tuesday to 10 points overnight in its Sunday Times poll. The firm has a split of 55-45 amongst decided voters. I wonder whether the heightened anti-Tory rhetoric from some Lib Dems is taking a bit of the pressure off Nick Clegg who has been the main…
Populus May 2005 A reminder of this shocker from 2005? At a big polling conference before the 2010 general election the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, touched on the challenges of carrying out surveys over bank holiday weekends and referred to the above famous Populus poll from 2005. For fieldwork took place over the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before the May 5 2005 general election day and came out with a 14 point Labour lead – three days later Blair’s…
Will the new “hurt George and Dave” effort change views? My reading of the referendum battle is that the only way that YES can come back from behind is if there’s a sizeable switch of Labour voters to their side. Currently it’s broadly 50:50 which reflects the views of the parliamentary party. It really needs to be 60:40 for the effort to abandon FPTP is to be successful. Ed Miliband has hardly been conspicuous in his advocacy of the side…
Can anything stop Salmond’s party now? Just a week and a half to go before the general election for the Scottish Parliament a new YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday reports very similar trends to those we saw on Thursday from Ipsos-MORI. There appears to have been a sharp collapse in the Scottish Labour position over the past week with the SNP now touching vote shares in both sections which could leave the party only a few seats short of…