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Category: Polls

A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

A Marf Cartoon and a guest slot from James Kelly on polling and the Scottish referendum

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Have the polls “consistently” shown that Scots are opposed to independence? Something that I know has privately frustrated the SNP in recent weeks and months is their perception that the media, especially south of the border but to some extent in Scotland as well, have bought into the anti-independence side’s narrative about what the polls on the referendum are showing. Newsnight’s coverage of the “treaty” between the Scottish and UK governments might stand as a case in point. Kirsty Wark…

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Exactly three weeks to go and Romney has a national lead of just one tenth of one percent

Exactly three weeks to go and Romney has a national lead of just one tenth of one percent

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There’s a must-read article by Nate Silver We are now just 21 days away from the November 6th elections for the next President of the United States and as the Real Clear Politics chart above shows the battle is extraordinarily tight. Nationally the lead that Romney built up following the first debate on October 3rd has started to whittle away – though he’s still ahead by a whisker. But as has been said so often during this campaign it’s not…

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Obama is edging back in the national polls

Obama is edging back in the national polls

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Obama vs. Romney: National trial heats . . . twitter.com/pollreport/sta… — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) October 15, 2012 The betting moves a notch back to Barack After a week and a half when all the polling has been in one direction there are just some signs that Obama is recovering from the blows he received from his lacklustre performance in the first Presidential Debate. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has the President leading by 49% to 46% which compares with 49-47…

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Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

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Edmund in Tokyo on the Obama fight-back One big question about the presidential election has been whether Republicans enthusiastic about defeating Obama and Democrats merely inclined to keep him, Romney will win the election by differential turnout. The Republicans often poll better among likely voters than registered voters, the combination of a weak economy and an uninspiring debate performance now puts the gap at as much as 5%. But in an election where 6 billion dollars worth of persuation is…

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Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

Main points from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

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YouGov for the S Times has LAB lead back in double figures -so no CON conference bounce.CON 33%/LAB 43%/LD 10%/UKIP 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 Dave (-20% from -24%) gets small YouGov leadership bounce but still behind Ed (-14%).Clegg is -58% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 32% told YouGov that EdM had the most successful conference with 22% saying Cameron and 3% Clegg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2012 YouGov finds that the Tories…

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Obama versus Romney 24 Days to go: The battleground states

Obama versus Romney 24 Days to go: The battleground states

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Ohio (18 electoral college votes) Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Florida (28 electoral college votes) Iowa (6 electoral college votes) This is heading for a very tight outcome and as Nate Silver concludes – Obama’s swing state firewall is very brittle. My current betting position is that I’m on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which means that I don’t lose any money whatever happens. For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and…

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A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

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At the start of the week the President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, declared that the Conservatives would “need a miracle” to win an majority at the next election. As things stand at the moment that must be right. Even protecting the 100 or so gains secured in 2010 is going to be a mammoth task and Labour are firm favourites in the betting to win most seats if not a majority. Yet today’s speech had a lot of merits. Cameron…

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The Sunday Morning Polling Round Up

The Sunday Morning Polling Round Up

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YouGov have the VI as Con 31%, Lab 45%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%. But the big news from yougov, which sees Ed’s net leadership ratings improve from last week’s minus 29%, to minus 9% this week. The normal caveats about polling during Conferences should be remembered, but Labour and Ed should be delighted by his 20% shift in the leadership ratings. If this were to be repeated with MORI, then Ed and Labour supporters will be extremely reassured. David Cameron…

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