The Great EP2014 Polling Race. Which firm's final poll will be closest to the actual result? pic.twitter.com/cRx1Vsx6iZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 25, 2014 Which firm is going to come out on top? There next few hours will be quite a nervous time for the pollsters because not too long after 10pm their final surveys will be able to be compared with the actual results. As can be seen five firms had Ukip in first place with leads varying between…
In another poll by Lord Ashcroft, 4,286 people who voted in the European Parliament elections in Great Britain were interviewed online on 22 and 23 May 2014, and there were quite a few questions asked (sadly no exit poll!) As I’ve stated before, one of the great unknowns when it comes to the next General Election is how 2014 UKIP voters will vote. Fortunately for us, Lord Ashcroft asked a question along those lines As you may know, the next…
Lord Ashcroft’s has published his marginal polling. The poll contradicts the findings of the ComRes marginals published earlier on this week, and the sample size here is nearly 26 times larger than the ComRes poll. This polling finds a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. 26,025 people were contacted by phone between 31st of March and the 18th of May. Given the collapsing leads and occasional…
EXCL: YouGov/Sun projection – UKIP to make history and win tmrw's Euro vote: UKIP 27%, Lab 26% http://t.co/BxDIr0lDej pic.twitter.com/hsgK5eLfgo — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 21, 2014 Update the Sun Graphic is incorrect, The Greens are on 10% ahead of the Lib Dems who are on 9% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 21, 2014 Meanwhile The Guardian have an interesting leak. An internal Liberal Democrat document reveals that the party is braced for a complete wipeout in the…
Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…
Comres marginals General Election poll LAB 35% CON 33% UKIP 17% LDEM 8% My own Labour/Tory battleground seat poll released Sat @ConHome — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 20, 2014 CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole The main reason why we have marginals polling at all is to find out whether what is happening in the key seats is different from the country as a whole. At a general election voters in these constituencies have a…
Survation have conducted a poll for the Daily Mirror, the fieldwork was yesterday and today, they polled 1,106 respondents. As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote. (So this is what the…
As Mike noted at the time the latest round of 2014Euro polls came back with a pretty wide range of results, ranging from UKIP leading by 11 points with ComRes, down to ICM putting them in 3rd and 4 points off the top. So I did a little digging. What I think is causing at least the main part of the disparity is how the different pollsters treat certainty to vote responses. ICM operate a weighting system based on a…