How serious is it for the party’s new leader? The eighteen or so hours since the end of PMQs yesterday the big focus at Westminster has been on Labour’s leader of only ten weeks – Ed Miliband. The write-ups in the papers of his performance have been pretty bad and last night there was a longish feature on Newsnight by Michael Crick about EdM’s position. Yet in spite of all this Labour continues to poll well and the latest PAPA…
Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown…
Is now the time to do some serious spread betting? There’s a sub-set of data in the PB/Angus Reid general election polling series that looks at what is happening in the 62 seats which the Lib Dems won at the 2005 general election. Inevitably given that this represents only about one in ten of all GB seats the sub-sample is small. But the numbers coming from surveys since the debate show that Clegg’s party is doing enormously well in the…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Apr 7 Apr 3 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 26% 27% LIB DEMS 22% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 7% 7% But the Labour still have a double digit deficit There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll just out and the figures are above. Polling started yesterday and went on until this afternoon – and was almost all carried out after the election was declared by Mr. Brown yesterday. The comparisons are with the weekend’s AR…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 31 Mar 17 CONSERVATIVES 39%37% 39% LABOUR 27%28% 26% LIB DEMS 23%22% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 –% 8% And others drop sharply as well With the election only days away from being called there’s a boost for the Lib Dems in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll. The entire field-work took place yesterday and today and so was completed after Monday’s Channel 4 “Ask the Chancellors” debate. A big feature in this latest…
How would the vote split? Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” – GREEN/UKIP/BNP – will actually have standing in the election. UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance. With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their…
Harris poll for The Metro Mar 16 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 5.5% UKIP/BNP/GRN all move up The gap between the Tories and Labour remains the same in the latest poll by Harris Interactive for the Metro but both main parties slip a point. It should be noted that fieldwork for the poll took place over seven days – from Wednesday last week to Tuesday this…
Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 21% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 8% Lib Dems up three as others slump The latest in the exclusive Politicalbetting/Angus Reid polling series is just out and shows one big major change – a slump in support for “others” to 14%. This is the lowest it has ever been and brings AR more into line with other firms. Alas for Brown…