Will the YES voters be more likely to hold on? With just two days to go before the big vote on student fees the Lib Dem parliamentary party has been meeting to hear their leader, the deputy prime minister and “Parliamentarian of the Year”, Nick Clegg. He told them it would be “better to walk through the fire together” to support the policy and confirmed that he would personally vote for the proposals. This is a big decision for each…
It’s 6/4 that they won’t Several traditional bookmakers have been running markets on which of the three party leaders will be first to leave their post and I’ve yet to tempted by any of them. The markets are open-ended and it could be years before you get a return. The new betting exchange, Smarkets, has a slightly different structure in that there’s an option on Cameron/Clegg/Miliband all still being in their jobs at the time of the next general election….
Is abstention the option for wusses? Just four days to go before the big commons vote on fees and what could potentially be a career-ending decision for each of the 57 MPs who were elected for the Lib Dems last May. What would you do in their position – there are just three options: You vote for the tripling of the maximum fee and risk being accused of breaking your promises and alienating a significant part of your electorate who…
General Election May 6 2010 CON>LAB/LD switchers required Warwickshire North 28 Camborne & Redruth (LD) 34 Thurrock 47 Hendon 54 Oxford West & Abingdon 89 Cardiff North 98 Sherwood 108 Total switchers needed ***458*** Would Labour have hung onto power? As we all are no doubt aware the May 2010 general election finished up with party seat totals that meant that only a combination of the 307 Conservative MPs with the 57 Lib Dem ones could produce a majority government….
What do we think of the Spectator’s line-up of awards? We’re coming to that point in the calendar when we also start to look back over the year that was and the first set-piece event took place last night – The Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year awards 2010. This was the line-up after an extraordinary and eventful year that simply did not go to plan. Who could have predicted these names on January 1st? Newcomer of the Year: Caroline Lucas…
Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 The red team at its highest level since October 2007 The first non-YouGov poll of November, from Ipsos-MORI, is just out and is in line with the trend from YouGov in showing a movement to Labour. The share of 39% is the highest from the firm since…
Could the differing treatment be what undermines the pact? In the run up to polling day on May 6th the Tories sent out a mailer to selected voters in key marginal seats headed “A contract between the Conservative Party and You”. It was designed to ease voters’ concerns about certain key areas of spending that the red team said were being cut. Most of the items listed were directed at pensioners – keeping free bus basses, the winter fuel allowance,…
What would happen in each of the parties? For the last hour or so I’ve been lying awake pondering what would happen if there was an unexpected vacancy in each of the three parties. Who would take over and what would be the consequences? The easiest, I think, would be with Labour. If Ed Miliband was suddenly unable to continue in the job then there would only be three realistic choices – Harriet Harman (20/1), David Miliband (5/1) or Yvette…