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Category: Lib Dems

Lib Dems the betting favourite for Leicester South

Lib Dems the betting favourite for Leicester South

Post updated 12.15 pm Will this be the scene a week on Thursday? At last – betting has now started on the Leicester South by-election and the current prices, from William Hill, are almost exactly in line with what Politicalbetting.com predicted here last Saturday. The market, together with one for the other by-election on July 15 at Birmigham Hodge Hill will be available online later today. The current Leicester South prices are:- LIBD 6/5 down from 11/8 after a £1,000…

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Can the Lib Dems win 6 seats or more?

Can the Lib Dems win 6 seats or more?

This 2001 General Election poster seeks to address a big problem for the Lib Dems – that of credibility. Electors might be attracted by the policy platform, they might give them a try at a local level as 29% did last Thursday, but at a General Election many do not believe they can win in a particular seat and see the Lib Dems as a “wasted vote”. But performances like this year’s local elections might start to change perceptions, especially…

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Charles Kennedy must now be safe

Charles Kennedy must now be safe

The Lib Dems performance in the Labour heartlands and the spectacular victory in Newcastle make Charles Kennedy’s position as leader safe even if the Euro Elections go badly for the party. If they can take Birmingham as well, as some are predicting, then that would be the icing on the cake. They’ve needed to show that they can take Labour votes and they’ve done that in a major way. The main betting market for this is the Party Leaders at…

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Labour’s back in the black..

Labour’s back in the black..

But will they lose Leicester South and if so – who to? After a few uncomfortable weeks when the spread betting gamblers on the Commons seat market had put Labour at below the level where they would have a Commons majority the latest spreads have the party comfortably above the 324 seat target – which gives them an absolute majority. Labour 325-335 Conservative 245-255 LIBd 52-57 This is in response to the pre-Euro Election opinion polls showing increased support for…

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Does postal voting have a more secure future than Kennedy or Blair?

Does postal voting have a more secure future than Kennedy or Blair?

. The Chief Executive and campaign guru of the Lib Dems, Lord Chris Rennard, has done a brilliant job attacking the postal voting experiment and not just over printing problems, the prospect of sealed letter boxes because of industrial action and fraud. He has rightly pointed out the constitutional implications of the Government ignoring the Electoral Commission’s ruling on the scale of the experiment. But will Lord Rennard’s first action after the Euro Election not be on the postal voting…

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Where will Charles Kennedy stand after the Euro Election?

Where will Charles Kennedy stand after the Euro Election?

With all the attention on Tony Blair there has been very little recently on Charles Kennedy’s position as leader of the Lib Dems. The party has been totally focussed on the June 10 European and elections and the general view is that they are going to do well. But are they? The locals should be good but will the Euro vote prove to be the disappointment that it was five years ago? A problem is that the Lib Dems always…

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Would the Lib Dems prop up the seat winner or the vote winner?

Would the Lib Dems prop up the seat winner or the vote winner?

With both this week’s opinion poll and moves on the spread betting markets in the past 24 hours pointing to the General Election producing a big Tory lead on votes but a big Labour lead on seats attention will surely focus on what the Liberal Democrats would do in such an outcome? The Lib Dems can’t duck this one because the mathematics of the next General Election mean that if there is a hung Parliament then the Tories are bound…

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How Charles Kennedy could be replaced

How Charles Kennedy could be replaced

Sunday’s telephone call by Charles Kennedy to the David Frost TV programme to say that he was definitely staying as Lid Dem leader has sparked more activity on the betting markets. This was not the move of a man confident of his position. In all the talk on Charles Kennedy’s future the question always arises as to what circumstances would lead him to go. No one can envisage the LDs doing what the Tories did to IDS last autumn. The…

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