Post updated 12.15 pm

Will this be the scene a week on Thursday?

At last – betting has now started on the Leicester South by-election and the current prices, from William Hill, are almost exactly in line with what Politicalbetting.com predicted here last Saturday.

The market, together with one for the other by-election on July 15 at Birmigham Hodge Hill will be available online later today. The current Leicester South prices are:-

LIBD 6/5 down from 11/8 after a £1,000 bet yesterday morning
LAB 6/4 having moved out from 11/8
CON 11/4

Our prediction last weekend of the chances of winning was LIBD 45%: LAB 30%: CON 25%. If the betting markets are right this would be a sensational result for the Lib Dems moving from third place, with just 17% of the vote, to overtake the Tories, who were in second place at the General Election, to take what was a Labour stronghold.

But this is still a very tight race and any one of the three main parties could end up victors.

The Conservatives have been given a big boost by the surprising decision of the United Kingdon Party not to field a candidate so there will be no repetition of the Euro elections where a huge proportion of Tory votes were syphoned off.

Labour might lose crucial votes to Respect – George Galloway’s new party that on June 10 showed that it could hurt Tony Blair in areas like Leicester South where there are large Muslim communities.

Number crunching on last months’s Euro results by the commentator, Anthony Wells shows that Labour won easily in Leicster South on June 10.

Although there is still a week and a half to go our CALL is BACK the Lib Dems at 6/5 but not any lower than that. Last Saturday we suggested that they had a 45% chance because of their strong local government base – they were top party in the local elections in the constituency in 2003 – and their huge expertise in winning by-elections. The victory in Brent East last autumn showed what they could do in a strong Labour seat.

In the other by-election on July 15 at Birmingham Hodge Hill William Hill are quoting:-

LAB 8/13
LIBD 11/8
CON 10/1

ODDS FORMAT ON POLITICALBETTING.COM In response to requests from users we are changing from expressing odds in the decimal format to the standard fractional format that is usual from UK bookmakers. This is an online conversion chart.