Will it be Ed up and Dave down? Everybody it seems at the moment is coming out with the old Harold Wilson quote about “a week being a long time in politics” and the past seven days, surely, have been almost without precedent. So how will the week’s events have impacted on the poll findings that for me are by far the best indicator of opinion – the leadership ratings? We’ll have to wait a week or so for the…
Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…
Meanwhile Cleggie’s situation improves Details of the Sunday Times YouGov poll are just out with the latest leadership ratings for Cameron/Miliband and Clegg. Here the pollster asks every week in the same standardised format whether those in the sample think that the leaders are doing well/badly. The +/- figures in the chart above shows the current splits with the change since the start of the month. As can be seen Clegg has edged back from his ultra-lows and is moving…
On the previous thread one or two people were asking for information on the latest party leader ratings from YouGov. The figures are represented in the chart above with change in the net from the last poll a week ago. The YouGov question asks “Do you think DC/EdM/NC is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?” It’s put in exactly the same form almost every week so we can track trends. I much prefer the Ipsos-MORI form…
YouGov leadership ratings “…doing well/badly?†All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters David Cameron Well 47(+4) 96 9 69 Badly 47(-3) 3 87 28 Ed Miliband Well 32 (-2) 14 67 22 Badly 47(nc) 71 20 53 Nick Clegg Well 28(+3) 58 5 68 Badly 63(-3) 34 92 29 But Edward drops a couple of notches The first leadership ratings numbers since the budget are out from…
Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 13/03/11 37 41 10 12 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/02/11 33 43 13 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 24/01/11 33 43 13 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/12/10 38 39 11 12 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 8 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 11 It’s CON 37: LAB 41: LD 10 The monthly telephone poll from Ipsos-MORI for Reuters is…
David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 45(+2) 95 10 71 Badly 48(-1) 4 88 25 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 37 (+4) 16 72 28 Badly 43 (-1) 65 16 57 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 34(+6) 68 8 79 Badly 57(-5) 26 88 20…
Ipsos-MORI.com Was January a blip – or the continuation of a trend? As PB regulars know I take a lot of notice leadership approval ratings particuarly those from MORI which has been asking the same questions for more than thirty years. Also, taking the lead from several leading academic political scientists who track this, my main focus is on the “satisfaction” figure and I’m less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it’s the proportion saying they…