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Category: Labour leadership

Is Balls the one who could damage Dave most?

Is Balls the one who could damage Dave most?

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How do we rate them after last night? The impact on the betting markets of last night’s first TV debate between the Labour leadership five has been a tightening of the David Milibrand price on Betfair although Ladbrokes reported that most money had come in for Ed Balls. Watching the debate again this morning I’m even more convinced that the only one capable of being an effective leader of the opposition is Ed Balls. He’s sharp, shameless and a fighter….

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Will the Milibands still be on top after Newsnight?

Will the Milibands still be on top after Newsnight?

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BBC Newsnight Could tonight’s debate change the contest’s dynamics? Richard Darlington on the New Statesman blog has a good trailer for tonight’s Newsnight debate with Jeremy Paxman in the chair. It takes place in front of an audience of swing and former Labour voters and their reaction could play a key part. For unlike the sterile rules of the General Election TV debates the audience are able to cheer and show their disapproval. To my mind this is the big…

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How Labour’s election system operates

How Labour’s election system operates

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A look at what happened the 2007 deputy race It keeps on getting raised on the threads that it might be useful to look once again at how Labour’s leadership election system operates. This has only been used twice – for the election of Tony Blair in 1994 and the race the deputy position in 2007. There are three strands to the electoral college each making 33.33%. Every eligible voters in each section will get a ballot paper asking them…

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Conflicting trends from the latest polls (Revised)

Conflicting trends from the latest polls (Revised)

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Fieldwork Pollster/Publication CON LAB LD OTH 10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18 10 1- 9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25 9 28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21 9 21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21 8 20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21 7 13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21 8 12-13 May ICM / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21 8 12-13 May ComRes / Independent on Sunday…

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Is Rentoul right about Mili-D’s Abbott nomination?

Is Rentoul right about Mili-D’s Abbott nomination?

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What’ll her presence do to the 2nd and 3rd prefs? John Rentoul, the Indy on Sunday’s columnist who is often said to be more Blairite than Blair, has taken up the cause of Mili-D in a big way. This is how he describes the ex-foreign sec’s move to provide a last minute nomination so that Diane Abbot could get on the ballot:- ..”What she will do, of course, is take votes away from the most left-wing of the other candidates…It…

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YouGov boost for Abbott

YouGov boost for Abbott

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YouGov – Labour leadership All voters Lab voters Public sector David Miliband 22 (-1) 38 (+4) 21 Diane Abbott 13 (+4) 9 (+2) 16 Ed Miliband 7 (-1) 11 (-2) 9 Ed Balls 5 (-1) 8 (-2) 7 Andy Burnham 4 (nc) 6 (+2) 6 But we need polling of the members and the unions The latest polling on public views of the Labour contests suggests that this is still about name recognition though the Abbott camp will be pleased…

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How much can we rely on early polls?

How much can we rely on early polls?

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Is Labour’s election a pollster’s nightmare? With Labour leadership polls expected in the next few days it’s worth reminding ourselves that we should not pay too much attention, or risk too much cash, on findings so far ahead of the ballot. At this stage, three months before the ballots went out, in the 2005 Tory race the Betfair price on then shadow home secretary, David Davis had tightened to 0.47/1. YouGov polling had him emphatically beating David Cameron in a…

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Is Balls best placed to show his prowess?

Is Balls best placed to show his prowess?

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Guardian.co.uk My thoughts on the Labour race are in a Guardian piece this morning. In the betting I’m on all five and even though I’ve had a lot of speculative bets will make a good profit whoever does it. My best outcomes with the top price I backed at are Abbott (50/1) and Ed Balls (22/1). These are followed by EdM (20/1), Andy Burnham (16/1) and David Miliband who I got at 7/1 last October. My plan is to bet…

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