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Betfair punters make Boris an 82.6 percent shot

Betfair punters make Boris an 82.6 percent shot

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Betfair Politics Don’t ignore YouGov’s great record in Mayoral elections With the last two Mayoral polls showing first preference leads of 9% and 11.2% for Boris it’s hardly surprising that on this final weekend the money has been going on the incumbent. I’m being a tad more cautious. YouGov’s final polls in both 2004 and 2008 got it correct to within 1% and there should be a new survey out tomorrow. Remember that four years ago the other pollsters had…

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Ladbrokes take just a tenner on Ken since race started

Ladbrokes take just a tenner on Ken since race started

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Why are punters shunning the Labour standard bearer? JUST TEN pounds has been placed on Ken Livingstone to win the London Mayoral election since Siobhan Benita entered the frame according to Ladbrokes. Whilst Siobhan Benita’s odds tumbled the bookies didn’t register a single bet for Ken Livingstone as his odds drifted out to 5/2. The trend has been bucked however and one brave punter has staked £10 on the Labour candidate – whilst Benita racks up thousands of pounds in…

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Was re-selecting Ken a monumental blunder?

Was re-selecting Ken a monumental blunder?

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How can he compete with the likable Boris? There’s a new ComRes poll for the London mayoralty which has, in the final two forced choice, Boris beating Ken by 53% to 47%. More interesting, given the importance of leader ratings in predicting outcomes, are the like him/like his party responses with ComRes using the format that was developed by Ipsos-MORI. As can be seen Boris has a massive likability lead over Ken and if the official LAB man makes the…

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Ken eases to a 29 pc chance after the Newsnight debate

Ken eases to a 29 pc chance after the Newsnight debate

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But will Boris be hit by the national Tory collapse? Exactly four weeks from today six million Londoners will get the chance to vote on who will be their elected mayor for the next four years. The is the single biggest election in the British political calendar and all three parties will be striving for a good showing. For the Tories this could be their one bright spot on the night. With Labour moving to double digit national poll ratings…

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Could Labour beat Boris if they got rid of Ken?

Could Labour beat Boris if they got rid of Ken?

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Could another candidate exploit the incumbent’s weaknesses? Perhaps the first election where we’ll the first impact of the riots will be that for London Mayor in May. The Tory incumbent, Mr. Johnson, looked far from sure-footed on his first day back after his truncated holiday and got booed at several locations when visiting the riot scenes. This has been the worst break-down in public order in living memory and there might be more to come. Boris’s failure to get back…

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Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

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Betfair Politics But shouldn’t Labour be capitalising more on their poll position? The next big scheduled UK election is that for London mayor next May. The main battle, like last time, will be between Ken and Boris with the former attempting to make it three wins out of four. As the chart of Betfair prices illustrates punter sentiment is strongly with the incumbent. In 2008 Ken ran Boris reasonably close at a time when his party, Labour, had slumped to…

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Could this bus really cost Boris the mayoralty?

Could this bus really cost Boris the mayoralty?

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Isn’t this rather clutching at straws? There’s an interesting piece by the normally reliable Sunny Hundal of Liberal Conspiracy under the heading “Here’s how Boris will lose the London Mayoral election”. Sunny’s main case is about the cost of the replacement for that London icon known throughout the world – the Routemaster bus. “Consider this. Last week Boris unveiled the new Routemaster buses..Know what the full cost was? They cost £7.8 million for just five of them. In contrast a…

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If Ken loses will it be Ed’s neck on the chopping block?

If Ken loses will it be Ed’s neck on the chopping block?

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HenryG on the challenges facing the Labour leader A significant article has just been published on the Tribune website – the journal of Labour’s heart and with longstanding union ties. It accurately sums up the frustrations many of us who supported Ed Miliband for Labour leadership have. It correctly identifies the importance of the London mayoral election and the growing unease at a tactical lack of unity behind Ken Livingstone’s campaign. It is my firm view that if Ken loses…

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