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Category: Gordon Brown

Brown-Cameron: What Lib Dem voters think

Brown-Cameron: What Lib Dem voters think

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Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Brown is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 35% 59% Lib Dem voters only 29% 65% Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Cameron is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 45% 42% Lib Dem voters only 32% 56% With the talk continuing over whether Clegg would prop up Brown or not I thought I’d dig out Lib Dem voters splits from the latest MORI poll. The…

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So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

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Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown…

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Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?

Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?

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Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price. This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually…

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Will Gord still make his Tuesday appointment?

Will Gord still make his Tuesday appointment?

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Could the widening gap be giving him second thoughts? If indeed, as is being widely reported, Mr. Brown makes that short car journey from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace on Tuesday morning then it will be a situation almost without precedent. For never before in modern times has a PM with a working majority had to make a decision on an election date when his party had double digit deficits in the polls. John Major was in a worse polling…

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What’ll this do to the final week of the campaign?

What’ll this do to the final week of the campaign?

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Could opinion harden against a hung parliament? Both the Guardian and Telegraph lead on a civil service plan that would have Mr. Brown remaining at Number 10 in the case of a hung parliament. As the Guardian puts it: “Under the proposals, which have been drawn up to prevent a constitutional crisis and a run on the pound, parliament may not reconvene for nearly three weeks to allow the prime minister to form a working government with the minority parties….

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Do leaders now matter more than policies?

Do leaders now matter more than policies?

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Ipsos-MORI Does this mark a turning point? Whilst checking out the Ipsos-MORI website overnight I came across a fascinating paper on what the pollster describes as the “Presidentialisation’ of British politics? The chart is self-explanatory – the leader is becoming more important in the eyes of voters and we could reach a point at this election when it takes over as the main driver. The MORI paper goes on: “..In fact, past evidence has suggested that voters tend to underestimate…

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Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

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Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…

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Will Labour let a defeated Brown carry on?

Will Labour let a defeated Brown carry on?

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BBC What this going to do to the leadership betting? A couple of month ago I started ploughing money on the post-December 31 2010 option in the Brown exit date betting after the PM had made comments similar to his interview on Woman’s Hour this morning. Even if he’s defeated and Cameron has a majority it’s seems clear to me that he is not going to give up the job he strove after for so long. So what’s this going…

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