Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord?
The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price.
This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually help the Tories?
True an increasing LD share should make it much harder for the Tories to pick up the ten seats from Clegg’s party that they had been hoping for.
True an increasing LD share might make it harder for the Tories to make the hoped-for headway in three-way marginals. You can see Labour supporters even in seats that they hold going yellow to stop the blues
But also true a resurgent Lib Dem party could seriously hurt Labour, in its effort to stop the Tories in LAB-CON marginals. For in these seats Labour have been looking to Lib Dem tactical voters to help them hang on. On top of that there is the real danger that yellow tactical voters at previous elections might return to the allegiance further eating into the Labour vote .
The worry for Labour is that Clegg’s performance might lead to them losing more key marginals.
On a personal note it was a fantastic experience being there in the Manchester studios while all this was taking place and being part of the post-debate discussion on the Dimbleby programme afterwards. Thank you ITV. It was a memorable evening and one which might have a big impact on the outcome.