Politicalbetting – August 2007 For a period back in 2007 the standard format for reporting polls on PB was to produce a series of smiling faces of the leader whose party was ahead – the number being determined by the size of the lead. In the run up to Mr. Brown becoming PM on June 27th 2007 the number of “happy Daves” began to decline and not to soon after the change-over they were replaced by “Happy Gordons”. This reached…
Betfair Politics Is there enough time left? With less than four weeks to go before ballot packs start going out the betting has moved further to David. The Betfair price is the equivalent of about 70% and has been tightening. Meanwhile the younger Miliband has seen his price ease as punters have become less convinced of his chances. The only thing we have to guide us here is the one YouGov poll of members and trade unionists who are eligible…
Didn’t voters simply want change? Will Straw’s Left Foot Forward blog has just published a Yougov poll which seeks to find out why Labour lost. Issues like Gordon Brown, immigration, Iraq and Afghanistan are tested. Yet on looking at the survey the LFF questioning seems to have been far to introspective to Labour and focuses too much on issues. For the following, based on polling at the time are the reasons, surely, why David Cameron is now PM. The mood…
What do we think of Mili-D’s plan? According to Paul Waugh on his Standard blog the Labour leadership front-runner, David Miliband, together with Tessa Jowell have come up with an interesting new plan for the BBC. They suggest that it should become a “mutual” with TV licence payers having a “real say” in how the corporation is run. According to Waugh they will say: “Owned by the British public and paid for directly through each household’s TV licence, it is…
From the previous thread: “The coalition is the most recklessly ambitious government that I can recall. It has started more controversial policies in three months than the average government takes on in a Parliament. I do not regard this as a good thing.” – antifrank Is he right? Mike Smithson
Is it worth 4/1 that she’ll be the one to take on Boris? Until now I have followed the received wisdom that Ken is a near certianty to secure his party’s nomination for London mayor in that other Labour election that will be taking place in the capital next month alongside the vote for next leader. The wily Ken, the argument goes, has been about for so long and he has such name recognition that he’s almost untouchable. But is…
Parliament Lowest Lib share GE share 1945-1950 7 9.1 1950-1951 4 2.5 1951-1955 2 2.7 1955-1959 5 5.9 1959-1964 7 11.2 1964-1966 7 8.5 1966-1970 7 7.5 1970-1974 6 19.3 1974 (F) – 1974 (O) 15 18.3 1974-1979 5 13.8 1979-1983 9 25.4 1983-1987 19 23 1987-1992 3 18 1992-1997 9 17.2 1997-2001 11 18.8 2001-2005 13 22.6 2005-2010 11 23.6 Everybody seems to be playing this today following Chris Huhne’s comment at the weekend. The above table shows the…
Is there a correlation between the national and the local? A crucial period for the coalition could be the days after next May’s local elections when there’ll be voting for many English councils, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament as well as the planned referendum on the voting system. Already many commentators, including me, are projecting that the latter will produce a NO. But what about that the other elections – will the LDs really see widespread losses on the…