How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) CON at G. Election LAB at G. Election LD at G. Election Did not vote Conservative 84% 1% 2% 7% Labour 2% 62% 15% 15% Lib Dem 5% 5% 74% 11% But how reliable is their support? This is a table that I don’t think we’ve looked at before – what those who now say they are voting for the three main parties did at the last election. The reason the rows…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18 Are we now seeing the affect of the cuts? Tonight’s survey from ComRes in the Indy is the first for…
How bad will tomorrow be for the Democrats? The final day and the dice are cast. Early voting has been heavy, but returns by party affiliation may be of little value in predicting either turnout (the percentage of voters voting early is expected to increase) or relative turnout between the parties. Neither campaign changed tactics much over the last few weeks. The GOP kept banging the anti-Obama/Pelosi/Reid drum, the Democrat House campaigns went nastily ad hominem, and the President sought…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/? 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 Labour leads for the second month running There’s a new online poll from Angus Reid – only the second such survey since the general election. As can be seen Labour are still in the lead though it’s down a point on last month. What’s not seen above is the SNP figure which stands at an extraordinary 4%. The big…
Has Britain’s membership ceased to be an issue? Last week my post on the public not really “caring a monkey’s” about the EU caused a little bit of a stir in some places. My argument was simple – we’ve been in the EU for 37 years and Britain’s membership has ceased to be an issue for all but a very small minority on voters. I quoted the latest MORI issues index where those naming the Europe/EU as the “most important…
How much potential is there for Labour progress? Regular readers of this blog will know that I regard local by-election results as being a good lead indicator of the next round of local elections. Despite having gigantic opinion poll leads from 1997-2003, the last Labour government regularly lost ground in successive rounds of local elections, during that period. Local by-elections pointed to these losses, whereas national opinion polls did not. The point should be obvious. National opinion polls are snapshots…
“Support or oppose cap on housing benefit†(YouGov) All sampled CON voters % LAB voters% LD voters % Support 72 94 52 78 Oppose 16 3 35 11 Don’t know 13 3 14 11 Should the red team and Boris re-think their strategies? After a week when domestic politics has been almost taken over by the row on housing benefit there is some polling on the issue – by YouGov for today’s Sunday Times. The findings with cross tabs on…
Poll Date CON % LAB% LD % YouGov/Sunday Times 29/10/10 42 37 13 YouGov/Sunday Times 22/10/10 41 40 10 YouGov/Sunday Times 17/10/10 41 39 11 YouGov/Sunday Times 08/10/10 42 38 12 YouGov/Sunday Times 01/10/10 39 41 11 Tories and LDs up – Labour down Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is the first full voting intention poll since the housing benefit row erupted and the figures are good for the coalition and bad for Labour. The Lib Dem share,…