On revised boundaries? Not possible James Lyons in the News of the World over the weekend suggested that Cameron’s team had plans to have a second general election in 2010 if, as some polls are indicating, he doesn’t have a workable majority. He also said that before the second election measures would be taken to change the boundaries so it would be fought on a “fairer basis”. Lyons wrote: “Tories… are secretly drawing up plans to ask the country to…
CON SPREAD RANGES 347 – 352 Sporting Index 343 – 348 ExtraBet 351.5 – 355.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 212 – 217 Sporting Index 213 – 218 ExtraBet 211 – 214 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 55 – 58 ExtraBet 53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market But the money is still well ahead of the seat projections As suggested here on Saturday morning the tightening of the Tory polling position over Labour…
Will he really stay on if Labour loses? The big story in the Sunday Times has serious implications for several betting markets if its turns out to be correct. The report opens: “Gordon Brown is making secret plans to stay on as Labour leader after the general election even if his party is defeated. The prime minister has told close colleagues that he will refuse to quit unless the Conservatives win a significant majority. “Gordon has said he believes his…
Mail on Sunday Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage? Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down – see here. Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and…
Twitter Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers? Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:- CON 40% (38) LAB 31% (31) LD 18%(19) So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey. There’s not a lot…
Have the markets got them priced too high? There’s been little reaction overnight on the spread-betting markets to the YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls with Conservative leads of 7% and 8% respectively. These are gaps that take us firmly into hung parliament territory – a situation that’s reached with a Tory seat total of 324. Compare that with the spreads above. SportingIndex at 6am had a range of 350 – 355 seats which is well above the hung parliament threshold and…
Shall we now stick with Press Association’s “official list”? As I’m sure most PBers will know the next election will be fought in England and Wales on new boundaries. That’s fine except when we try to predict seats for betting an other purposes we need to know what happened last time. And here we can run into some massive confusion because there are at least three sets of 2005 notionals available online and they can all be showing very different…
SkyNews Could this be a dangerous day for Mr. Brown? Getting on for seven years after he took that momentous decision Tony Blair will be quizzed in public for six hours today about what has become the defining policy of his administration – the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. We’ve had a taster already, from Alastair Campbell earlier in the month, of the approach the ex-PM is likely to take and we’ll be exposed again to that hugely capable…