Harris poll for The Metro Mar 9 Feb 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 29% 30% LIB DEMS 18% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6% And “others” soar in another online poll As the polling deluge continues there’s another survey out this evening from Harris Interactive for the Metro. The figures are above with the big move, surely, being a huge increase in the numbers saying that they will vote for one of the other parties – mostly…
Evening Standard “….But the kind of scrutiny to which certain punters subject opinion polls now is useful — and greater than that of some political obsessives. When Kellner appeared for a live online discussion on politicalbetting.com last week, he was grilled by dozens of punters probing the finer points of YouGov’s weighting system. It was, compared with much of the vitriol that passes for political debate on the web, a remarkably polite and well-informed discussion. The reason politicalbetting.com has become…
Notice how others are large – like Angus Reid The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else. The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others – very much in line with the PB/Angus Reid polls. Maybe it’s something about online polling? A disappointment is that it makes no attempt to politically weight its samples. This probably…
Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005 CONSERVATIVES 38% 31.5 LABOUR 38% 45.3 LIB DEMS ??% ?? LAB to CON swing 6.7% — Is a hung parliament now looking more likely? We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 – 150. It’s assumed that the first 50 will go anyway. There’s no data in the…
Will tonight’s poll be in ICM or YouGov territory? After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening. The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% with YouGov/BPIX) or that of ICM with its Tory 40% share and 9% lead? It’s hard to say – at the start of February the firm had 40-30-20. Mike…
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” “Well” “Badly“ +/- Brown 36% (36) 60% (58) -2% Cameron 48% (50) 44% (39) -7% Clegg 43% (42) 31% (28) -2% Are the Tories right to make Brown the issue? This is the second of my planned weekly threads on what many pundits believe are the best guide to forecasting general elections – the leader approval ratings. The comparisons above are the net change as compared with last week. These are…
CON 36% (33.2) LAB 34% (36.2) LD 18% (22.7) Comparisons are with the 2005 result LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5% Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight – this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It’s the first from them this year so I’m following recent PB practice where there’s not been a similar poll for a couple of months and showing comparisons…
British Election Study But could Labour activists now be more motivated? In the next few weeks we’ll be seeing a lot of data about difference aspects of the campaign from the British Election Study – a big academic programme involving a number of universities and quite a lot of polling. In this posting Professor Paul Whiteley writes: “The survey shows that about a quarter of the electorate have been contacted since July 2009, and the chart shows the percentages contacted…