Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?

Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?

CON 36% (33.2)
LAB 34% (36.2)
LD 18% (22.7)
Comparisons are with the 2005 result
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5%

Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points

There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight – this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It’s the first from them this year so I’m following recent PB practice where there’s not been a similar poll for a couple of months and showing comparisons with the 2005 result.

PB regulars will know that whatever numbers BPIX produce the firms lack of transparency generally sets me off on a rant.

Go check out their website where, yet again you’ll find that the site is “under construction” – a state that it has been in for several years. It does not follow the publication code of the British Polling Council and I have never seen a dataset from its polling.

We do know that YouGov carries out the actual fieldwork which I assume is from the firm’s polling panel.

What’s critical here is knowing what weightings are being applied and whether it is following in the broad YouGov approach. This data needs to be published today.

Having said that BPIX did very well at the 2005 general election but without transparency it’s hard to make proper assessments.

According to the Mail on Sunday report BPIX did find a marginals affect – the lead was 7% in 92 marginal seats looked at.

So we have a massive difference opening up between the YouGov family polls and others. The former are suggesting that Labour could possibly be only just short of a majority while the latter are painting another picture.

Tomorrow night things might become a bit clearer with a Populus poll in the Times. Heaven knows what political punters should do. I took the profits on all my open spread positions last week and I think that’s probably the safest approach.

  • A special plea to BPIX boss Professor Paul Whiteley: I would be grateful if you could email me directly your datasets today – it would add lot of confidence.
  • Today on PB It’s the second birthday of my grand-daughter, Esther, and I’m tied up with a family gathering. There are some great guest-slots lined up but I will not be looking at the site until this evening.

    Mike Smithson

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