Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price. This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually…
Will the debate be an historic event or a damp squib? … and big jump for Lib Dems with You Gov So, just 50 years after Kennedy and Nixon, the UK finally joins the democracies that hold election debates between leaders. Internationally, a three-way debate is fairly rare (the Bush-Clinton-Perot matchup of 1992 a notable exception) – most are either the “big two” leaders (eg US, France, Germany, Australia) or more of an all-party debate (eg Canada, Austria). Having progressed…
Should we be “recalibrating” its figures? Something very strange is happening with the ComRes polling numbers which look as though they might be being distorted by a huge increase in “other others”. This is the category that excludes the three main parties, SNP/PC/UKIP/GRN/BNP and in, for instance, the firm’s February 11th poll was down to just four respondents in a sample of over a thousand. According to the data from last night’s poll for ITV News/Independent “other others” were recorded…
YouGov Daily Poll Apr 14 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5.5% Is this down to the manifesto coverage? My reaction to last night’s polling news was that there might have been a boost in Labour’s position because quite of a lot of the fieldwork had taken place just after the party had received a coverage boost following its manifesto launch. Well it does seem from tonight’s…
Should this new range of markets be voided? Thanks to Aaron a couple of days or go for pointing up the wording that Betfair is using to define majority in a new range of markets that have just been put up. The wording used is this:- “What will be the Conservative Party’s overall majority of parliamentary seats as a result of the next UK general election? This market refers to how many seats in excess of 325 the Conservative Party…
PoliticsHome: YG aggregated regional data Apr 4 -11 Do the regional splits point to an overall Tory majority? Above is a table prepared for PoliticsHome by YouGov showing their aggregated data from a week’s polling broken down into the regional splits. What matters is the right hand block showing the variations from the 2005 result. To work out the swing in a particular region add the Tory plus figure to the Labour minus one and divide by two. Three trends…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 11 Apr 8 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 30% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% The Independent has teamed up with ITV news to do two general election polls a week – the first of which appears this evening. The gap is the same as the last ComRes poll – the big difference being that both Labour and the Tories are down two each with Clegg’s party moving up four….
ICM Marginals poll Voted CON 2005 Voted LAB 2005 Voted LD 2005 B “I think I know who I’ll vote for but could change my mind” 18% 25% 31%