The hung parliament odds get tighter
Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD Ladbrokes 8/13 6/4 16/1 20/1 Political Smarkets 60% 36% 6% 2% Mike Smithson
Is it all pointing to a big turnout?
Wikimedia What’s the best betting option? For my Guardian election betting tip today I highlight a finding from this week’s MORI poll in which 78% of voters say the outcome of the election is important to them personally. The response level at this stage of a campaign to the same question was only exceeded in 1992. Then, it will be recalled, turnout was just under 78%. Clearly a combination of the TV debates and the hard-to-predict outcome is adding to…
So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?
Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown…
Did Cameron peak too early?
Ipsos-MORI Is 4.5 years as opposition leader just too long? One of the key sets of figures that overseas pundits always look for are the approval ratings and, indeed, the most linked to PB post from the US this week has been that on the huge rise in Clegg’s rating. Clearly there’s a stark contrast between the Clegg and Cameron position and doubt the Tory leader will have learned lessons from the first debate and step up his game tonight…
What does Dave do about Nick’s referendum move?
Could this be a trap for the Tory leader? As we get closer to each of the debates all three participants have been positioning themselves on issues that might come up. Thanks to David Blackburn on the Speccie CoffeeHouse blog for highlighting this one – Nick Clegg’s offer yesterday to hold a full “in or out” referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. This, of course, has been one of the key demands of UKIP – and could supporters of…
Tabloids cover Lib Dems sensation
Will this reverse the polling surge? One of the ongoing moans of the Liberal Democrats was the challenge they face in getting the attention of the media. Well they can’t complain this morning. For now the attention is moving off the volcanic dust story Nick Clegg faces the full force of the tabloids with one paper after another firing salvo after salvo at him and his party. The question is whether it’s going to have an impact? Are the papers…
Will approval ratings be the best guide – again?
Ipsos-MORI Is this the trend we should be looking at? PB regulars will be aware that one of the sets of monthly data that I take seriously is the above from MORI – the leader approval ratings. These have been asked in precisely the same form since the late 1970s and have proved to be an equal if not better guide to general election outcomes than the standard voting intention findings. Given that the latest MORI poll was carried out…
How much are you winning on the Lib Dem surge?
Is now the time to do some serious spread betting? There’s a sub-set of data in the PB/Angus Reid general election polling series that looks at what is happening in the 62 seats which the Lib Dems won at the 2005 general election. Inevitably given that this represents only about one in ten of all GB seats the sub-sample is small. But the numbers coming from surveys since the debate show that Clegg’s party is doing enormously well in the…