Bestbetting Does it all depend on the Yellow-Blue battles? If this was a straight fight between the Tories and Labour then there would be a strong case for saying back a Tory majority. The polls seem to be suggesting that the blues are doing well enough in these encounters to win. But in three other groups of seats it’s hard to come to that conclusion. CON efforts to take LD seats: The latest polling, by Crosby-Textor, for the Telegraph suggests…
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly Net Change BROWN 33% (38) 63% (57) -30 -9 CAMERON 58% (50) 36% (37) +22 +9 CLEGG 79% (77) 14% (14) +65 +2 YouGov Sunday Times Is this where “Bigotgate” is taking its toll? YouGov has now published the full data from its Sunday Times poll so we can see the detail of what many, including myself, regard as a good guide to what will happen in the election….
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con LD Lab Oth Lead YouGov 2 May 34 29 28 9 Con 5 ICM 2 May 33 28 28 11 Con 5 BPIX 1 May 34 30 27 9 Con 4 ComRes…
YouGov – the Sun May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% UPDATE – ICM ICM – Guardian May 2 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 33% 36% LIB DEMS 28% 27% LABOUR 28% 29% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK election game is available here – entries close 7am BST Thursday
The chart, from Bestbetting, shows the changing prices on the exchanges, expressed as an implied percentage, to developments over the past 24 hours. As can be seen the markets did what markets almost always do – they over-reacted. Now the gap between the Tory majority and a hung parliament has moved to the 53-47 range as we wait for more polling. I just wonder whether we’ll get a “bank holiday” poll with a very different picture. It happened at precisely…
Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1983 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1987 Margaret…
What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…
For me the striking thing about Labour’s final week campaign is not the effectiveness of the poster itself but who it it aimed at. For study after study has shown that the group most detached from the political process are younger working class women. Not only are they less likely to vote than working class men of the same age but they are also much less likely to have any political allegiance. But how do you get to them? In…