Could NOM become the favourite again?

Could NOM become the favourite again?

The chart, from Bestbetting, shows the changing prices on the exchanges, expressed as an implied percentage, to developments over the past 24 hours.

As can be seen the markets did what markets almost always do – they over-reacted. Now the gap between the Tory majority and a hung parliament has moved to the 53-47 range as we wait for more polling.

I just wonder whether we’ll get a “bank holiday” poll with a very different picture. It happened at precisely this stage in 2005 when, as we discussed last week, Populus came out showing a 14% Labour lead which was way over the 3% that actually happened a few days later.

Mike Smithson

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