Is Labour beginning to deflect the blame? The big clashes at Cameron’s third PMQs since entering Number 10 had a more familiar feel to them. The event was much less conciliatory than the first two occasions and Labour’s Harriet Harman felt confident enough to lead on the economy. For the big political battle in the coming days and months is over the state of the public finances and the economy that Labour left behind when Mr. Brown went to the…
Fieldwork Pollster/Publication CON LAB LD OTH 10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18 10 1- 9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25 9 28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21 9 21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21 8 20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21 7 13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21 8 12-13 May ICMÂ / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21 8 12-13 May ComRes / Independent on Sunday…
Is Michael Ashcroft right to vent his spleen? According to the News of the World’s political editor, Ian Kirby, the Tory fundraiser who became the target of Labour attacks, Michael Ashcroft, is writing a book in which he’s hugely crititcal of the Tory general election campaign and David Cameron’s leadership. A particular focus is said to be “the decision to put David Cameron alongside Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg in the three TV debates.” Ashcroft is right about their impact…
YouGov – Labour leadership All voters Lab voters Public sector David Miliband 22 (-1) 38 (+4) 21 Diane Abbott 13 (+4) 9 (+2) 16 Ed Miliband 7 (-1) 11 (-2) 9 Ed Balls 5 (-1) 8 (-2) 7 Andy Burnham 4 (nc) 6 (+2) 6 But we need polling of the members and the unions The latest polling on public views of the Labour contests suggests that this is still about name recognition though the Abbott camp will be pleased…
“Approve or disapprove of the government” Approve Disapprove All voters 44% 24% Tory voters 79% 7% Labour voters 14% 39% LD voters 50% 19% “Support or oppose the coalition?” Support Oppose All voters 60% 30% Tory voters 86% 12% Labour voters 25% 62% LD voters 73% 17% But will it change after the cuts package? New YouGov polling data suggests that support for the coalition continues. Interestingly the figures above are broken down into what respondents said they did at…
Correlations between changes in vote share CON LAB LD NAT UKIP LAB -0.29 LD -0.27 –0.52 NAT –0.38 0.19 -0.56 UKIP 0.05 -0.13 0.07 0.03 BNP -0.01 -0.27 0.04 -0.40 -0.13 Did the anti-EU party hurt Labour most? A couple of weeks ago the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, claiming the psephological science was on his side, asserted that UKIP had cost the Tories 21 seats on May 6th. He wrote:”..Detailed examination of the election results reveals that UKIP deprived the…
CON lead CON seats LAB seats LD seats OTH seats – 2.7% 239 326 59 26 0.0% 255 306 61 28 4.1% 282 281 59 28 7.3% 307 258 57 28 11.2% 327 233 62 28 What do these seat projections mean for next time? The table above features the new commons seat projections for the next election prepared by Professor John Curtice for Friday’s general election post-mortem at the University of Nottingham. As can be seen the Tories need…
General Election May 6th 2010 CON LAB Average electorate of seats won 72,435 68,612 Average turnout in seats won 68.4% 61.1% Average total votes in seat won 49,436 41,842 Seats won with small majorities 60 81 Votes in seats where party was third 28.4% 16.6% Will equalising seats sizes make much difference? This is the first of several posts I will be doing following the general election post mortem that took place at the University of Nottingham on Friday. I…