The Ipsos-MORI Monitor for April is just out and has the Tories on 40% – three up on the general election last May and at their highest level with the pollster since then. The blues are now level-legging with Labour and this is the first poll from the firm since October with Labour not in the lead. As can be seen from the chart the firm has the yellows continuing to decline amongst those “certain to vote”. MORI headline figures…
Without the debates could Labour have hung on? Today is the first anniversary of an event that was to have a profound impact on the 2010 general election and which probably changed British politics forever – the first of the three leaders’ TV debates. It was staged at the Granada studios in Manchester and I was fortunate to have been there – taking part in the post-debate discussion on ITV with Jonathan Dimbleby. We all know the story of what…
Can the red team no longer rely on “the system”? For the last twenty years, the Conservatives have needed a greater share of the vote than Labour in order to win an overall majority. That was the case for three main reasons: a higher turnout in safe Conservative seats as against safe Labour ones, a much greater willingness for Lib Dems to tactically support Labour to keep the Tories out than the reverse, and Labour seats being on average smaller…
Are researchers stretching conclusions too far? There’s an academic report out that suggests that devices such as the “Worm”, seen in some of the broadcasts of last April’s leaders’ TV debates, could influence the views of voters and possibly change an electoral outcome. Professor Jeff Bowers of Bristol University and Professor Colin Davis, from Royal Holloway, carried out their study by manipulating a worm and superimposing it on a live broadcast of the final election debate in Bristol. Two groups…
But is the biggest lesson the fall of the Lisbon government? George Osborne won’t be too unhappy when he flicks though the front pages this morning – though the reception to his plans from even friendly quarters is perhaps not as enthusiastic as might have hoped. The challenge, of course, is the context in which the government is operating. It’s a lot easier to get good headlines when the economy is going well and there’s money to hand out. James…
Will today’s measures help cut-back the Labour lead? In the end almost everything that was predicted for the budget actually came about and what we saw was a package of measures designed to meet one objective – to make the the government’s cut-backs more acceptable. Osborne focussed his big measure, the one pence cut in the price of a litre of petrol, on one of the costs that I’ve long argued is super-sensitive politically. For many the car is essential…
Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 32 41 10 17 Angus Reid/ 04/03/11 33 41 10 16 Angus Reid/ 10/02/11 34 40 11 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 28/02/11 32 43 11 14 Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 33 41 12 13 Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 15 Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 12 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 11 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38…
How key is this to the next general election? If you think that there’s a glut of polling from Ipsos-MORI polling at the moment you are right. For as well as the regular MORI political monitor for Reuters there were also special pre-budget questions for the Economist – details of which are now available. The most significant findings politically related to that subject that we’ve touched on a fair bit on PB – who is to blame for the cuts?…