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Category: General Election

Remember the Sun front page from election day 2010

Remember the Sun front page from election day 2010

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The endorsement that failed to get the Tories a majority In spite of the backing of the Sun, of course, Dave didn’t win a majority. His party’s national vote share edged up just 3.7% and in spite of winning 100+ seats the Tories fell short. The final divide was the Conservative party 306 to 344 non-Tory seats. The 2010 outcome was unlike the paper’s endorsements at the 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections. I also wonder whether…

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What’ll be the leader line-up for 2015?

What’ll be the leader line-up for 2015?

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Welcome to Betfair’s new market Betfair have just introduced what proved to be one of the most lively betting exchange markets in the three years leading up to the 2005 general election. It’s dead simple. The options are; Cameron/Miliband/Clegg Cameron/Miliband Cameron/Clegg Miliband/Clegg Cameron alone Miliband alone Clegg alone None of them Back in the 2004/2005 it was this market where the action was ahead of Iain Duncan Smith’s forced departure and there were moments when both Blair and Kennedy looked…

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Does Dave have to offer a referendum before Ed does?

Does Dave have to offer a referendum before Ed does?

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The Sunday Times are reporting that Andrew Cooper, formerly of Populus and currently David Cameron’s pollster has warned the Tories they face embarrassment in the 2014 European Parliament elections, where they could be pushed into second place or worse by UKIP, unless they make a dramatic manifesto pledge to have an in/out referendum. A source said: “Cooper’s polling is clear. There’s a real public backlash against the EU and if we don’t do something, UKIP will get the benefit. There’s a…

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The Debut ICM Wisdom Index

The Debut ICM Wisdom Index

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This is the debut of a new polling methodology from ICM. Conservatives 31% Labour 39% Lib Dems 16%   Unlike conventional polls, which ask voters which party they would choose in a general election, the Wisdom Index asks them to predict the result of such a contest. This poll was conducted online, unlike other ICM polls which are conducted by phone.  Martin Boon of ICM posted on the previous thread, here is an excerpt.  The new technique is based on…

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Will Europe be the issue that will end the coalition?

Will Europe be the issue that will end the coalition?

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The Times are reporting that Tory MPs say Greek exit will force referendum What gives this story a lot of credence is that Nadeem Zahawi, who is close (and loyal) to George Osborne, said on the record: “If there is a requirement for a new treaty, which there must be, to deal in part with Greece’s exit, then it would trigger a referendum. We would have to make sure we would try and repatriate powers from the social chapter and bring…

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Finding out about current UKIP supporters

Finding out about current UKIP supporters

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Are the blues right to think that the purples will return? The two big moves in opinion since the general election have been the Lib Dem collapse with the switch to Labour and now the rise of UKIP. The former has been studied at length but there’s been very little polling data on the latter. One challenge is that of all the pollsters only ComRes provides cross-tabs on UKIP supporters. In its latest poll Comres also has the question “Which,…

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What if the blues conclude that Dave is a loser?

What if the blues conclude that Dave is a loser?

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Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM? These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted. What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement? What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most…

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Cameron’s MORI ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s

Cameron’s MORI ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s

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Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops Another poll, MORI, has EdM beating DC in leader ratings.Ed’s net rating is -16/Dave’s is -28/Clegg’s is -39 bit.ly/JXzzkh — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012 Clegg also sees a big drop in his MORI ratings down from -31 in April to -39 now.bit.ly/JXzzkh — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012 Cameron’s -28% MORI rating is worse than Gordon Brown’s was in any survey from the pollster in the 5…

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