Are the blues right to think that the purples will return?

The two big moves in opinion since the general election have been the Lib Dem collapse with the switch to Labour and now the rise of UKIP.

The former has been studied at length but there’s been very little polling data on the latter. One challenge is that of all the pollsters only ComRes provides cross-tabs on UKIP supporters. In its latest poll Comres also has the question “Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow?”.

From the data for the SIndy/SMirror poll we can start to build a picture of what current UKIP supporters are thinking and the potential election dynamics.

These are some of the headline points which I Tweeted:

ComRes: 47% of current UKIP supporters voted Tory at the 2010 election. 14% voted LD and just 3% voted Labour

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 22% of UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting Tory

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 13% of current UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting BNP at next election

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 9% of UKIP supporters say “Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister”. 76% say he isn’t

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 4% of UKIP supporters would vote to “stay in EU””

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

@MikeSmithsonOGH