How vulnerable are Lansley, Hunt, May and Osborne? For me one of the big polling events of the month is the Populus telephone survey for the Times which came out overnight. The headline voting figures were LAB 40 (-1): CON 34 (+1): LD 12 (+3) so quite a boost for the Lib Dems after a difficult week. No separate UKIP share has been released yet. An interesting aspect in view of the impending re-shuffle, was a brutal question on which…
Will Dave listen to Trevor Kavanagh’s advice? Coming up in early September, if we are to believe the weekend papers, is Cameron’s planned reshuffle. This is due to take place on the first weekend of the month ahead of the return of parliament and the conference season. Given that this is likely to be the only shuffle before the election its importance cannot be understated. The problem is that reshuffles can be very dangerous for prime minister especially after rebellions…
On Jan 20 2012 Dave was 50% ahead of Miliband in the YouGov leadership ratings.Today he is 4% behind — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Ed Miliband’s YouGov leadership rating is a net minus 21 which is 4% ahead of Cameron on minus 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Miliband’s YouGov rating of minus 21% is his best since August 2011 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2012 Clegg drops to lowest ever level in YouGov’s leadership…
YouGov: Just 5% of Tory voters and 11% of Lib Dems want the coalition to continue beyond the election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012 YouGov: 27% of CON voters &13% of LD ones say they would like the coalition to end immediately — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2012 53% of CON voters and 41% of LDs tell YouGov that they want the coalition to end at some point before the general election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July…
Michael Ashcroft polling September 2011 Could this impact on Tory hopes? (This is the first of a series of articles looking at the Tory chances of winning a majority. This first one looks at tactical voting) One of the big challenges that the blues have had to deal with in recent general elections has been anti-Tory tactical voting in key seats. What happens is that voters choose the contender in their own constituency who seems most likely to beat the…
Will all parties be more wary about formal coalitions? William Hill has just put up the above market on the composition of the commons after the next general election and I rather like the OTHER option which was initially priced at 12/1 and is now down to 8/1. My reading is that this would cover situations where no party won an overall majority and that there was, unlike now, no formal coalition deal. I cannot see either the Tories or…
Some headlines from May 13 2010
@thetomslatter It is reckoned that if the 2010 election had been fought on the planned boundaries then the Tories might have won a majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2012