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Category: General Election

One Labour voter in three tell Populus that they would prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister

One Labour voter in three tell Populus that they would prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister

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Is the LAB polling position flaky? Full details from the Populus survey are out and give some pointers to the apparently contradictory findings. There are two points to note: a very high number of 2010 CON and LD voters saying don’t know or refused. With the former the proportion was 23% and the latter 26%. Although Populus make a limited adjustment to deal with this the overall pool of of voters on which the VI calculation is based is reduced….

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Labour maybe 15 percent ahead in the overnight Populus poll but the leader who should be most worried is Ed Miliband

Labour maybe 15 percent ahead in the overnight Populus poll but the leader who should be most worried is Ed Miliband

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When forced to choose just 31% want Ed as PM The dramatic polling news overnight from Populus had Labour move to a 15% lead over the Tories. The figures, with changes on the last survey from the pollster in July, were CON 30%(-4): LAB 45%(+5): LD 10%(-2). That’s the biggest lead we’ve seen since the election in a telephone poll where certainty to vote is one of the key determinants. On the face of it, then, seriously good news for…

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The Sun’s “Boris would add 6 percent” poll could further undermine David Cameron’s leadership

The Sun’s “Boris would add 6 percent” poll could further undermine David Cameron’s leadership

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The Sun Without Boris YouGov finds that it’s CON 31/LAB 42/LD 10%.With Boris as leader CON 37%/LAB 38%/LD 11% so almost all of LAB lead wiped out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2012 There are two big reasons why the Sun poll on the impact on voting figures of a Boris is significant:- It points to the extent that Britain’s biggest-selling paper is getting behind Boris in an effort to have him replace Cameron as Tory leader – something…

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Why Labour’s polling position might not be as robust at it looks

Why Labour’s polling position might not be as robust at it looks

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Some other findings from today’s daily poll Cameron’s YouGov lead as “best PM” up from 8% a fortnight ago to 11%.He’s 33% to Ed’s 22% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 6, 2012 Just 53% of LAB voters tell YouGov that Ed Miliband would make the best PM. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 6, 2012 LAB might enjoy 45% voting intention share with YouGov but just 31% say they want a LAB majority government with 30% saying a CON one —…

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Is the tide turning against Ed Miliband and Labour?

Is the tide turning against Ed Miliband and Labour?

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LAB YouGov lead down to 6% again CON 34%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%.Is the mood turning against Ed’s party? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 5, 2012 Two of the past 3 YouGov polls have had LAB leads down to 6% – and ComRes had it down to 4% when the party leader names were mentioned. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 5, 2012 Could doubts about Ed raise their head again? The first polls of September have seen what…

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YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

YouGov adds to the pressure on Clegg

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Ominous for Clegg? By 47% to 31% LD voters tell YouGov that the party would do better at the election with a different leader. S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2012 Will he still be leader at the general election? With the Lib Dem conference due to start in less than three weeks there’s some new polling tonight that could put more pressure on the party leader, Nick Clegg. The Sunday Times is reporting that in its poll…

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Tim Montgomerie’s advice to David Cameron.

Tim Montgomerie’s advice to David Cameron.

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In today’s Times, Tim Montgomerie has an article, offering some advice to David Cameron, to help him deal with his current problems. He points out despite the “omnishambles” of recent months, the polling shows that the electorate still prefer David Cameron to Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, and on the economic front, David Cameron and George Osborne lead the two Eds on the economy, despite George Osborne’s unpopularity and the fact we’re currently in a double-dip recession. To tap into…

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How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

How will the Scottish independence referendum affect the next general election

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James Kelly looks at the various scenarios. One thing is for sure – Scotland will be returning MPs to Westminster at the next general election, whenever it is held.  On the SNP’s proposed timetable, a Yes vote in the 2014 referendum would not result in an independent Scottish state coming into being until 2016. It is inconceivable that Scotland could remain part of the United Kingdom, even for a few months, without parliamentary representation.  Perhaps a provisional arrangement might be…

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