Is the LAB polling position flaky?
Full details from the Populus survey are out and give some pointers to the apparently contradictory findings.
There are two points to note: a very high number of 2010 CON and LD voters saying don’t know or refused. With the former the proportion was 23% and the latter 26%. Although Populus make a limited adjustment to deal with this the overall pool of of voters on which the VI calculation is based is reduced.
My guess is that the lion’s share of the don’t knows named Cameron as preferred PM.
But the element that is most surprising is the high level of support for David Cameron amongst those telling Populus that they plan to vote Labour.
12% said they were satisfied with the Tory lead and and a further 21% said that whilst dissatisfied with Cameron they preferred him rather than Miliband as PM.