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Category: General Election

Does the government care that household debt is soaring?

Does the government care that household debt is soaring?

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HenryGManson asks Does the government care that household debt is soaring? New PB Thread http://t.co/8WK28EM4eL pic.twitter.com/j16apwPMPH — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 We often hear politicians refer to the national debt, at which point Fraser Nelson will republish his chart showing the latest figures the government owes and that either the Chancellor or Prime Minister is telling fibs. This week Nelson added ‘although I hate to say it, the Labour Party has a valid point to make. If you don’t adjust…

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Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

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Now that he is free from being a Member of Parliament, and not constrained by having to toe the party line, Chris Huhne has been offering his thoughts on a variety of subjects. Yesterday Chris Huhne wrote a piece in Juncture magazine which discusses on the formation of the current coalition in 2010, and the possibility for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition in 2015. (You can read the piece here and here’s the Guardian write up of the Huhne piece.) He says on…

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If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

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And next week GE2015 will be only 17 months away Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most. By the same argument the more the UKIP share slips back then the better it should be for the blue team The real answer is that we don’t know. The…

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UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

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The first of 8 seat specific surveys funded by a UKIP donor Today marks the start of a new GE2015 polling series funded by UKIP donor, Alan Bown. These will be published in the coming weeks and will look at LAB-CON marginals where UKIP may be a factor in the 2015 general election. These are the only ­ constituency specific polls to be published so far during this election cycle (the Ashcroft marginals polling combined constituencies which were not broken…

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Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

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The stage is set surely for Nigel Farage to become an MP Big GE2015 news has been the announcement by Thanet South MP, Laura Sandys, that she’s going to stand down at the general election. She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement. Nigel Farage had already indicated that the seat…

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So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

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The YouGov/Sunday Times has Con 33% Lab 40% LD9% UKIP 11% So no sign that the Flowers story or Falkirk is impinging on LAB position — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 Labour’s share continues to be very stable Generally pollsters ask the voting intention questioning first before moving on to other issues because they don’t want the process of the polling itself to impact on the voting responses. It has been shown that you can influence voting responses if the question is asked…

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New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

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A month ago the Oxford University political scientist, Dr Stephen Fish, produced his first projection for GE2015 in which he suggested that the Tories had a 57% chance of an overall majority. He’s now produced a follow-up that has a slightly reduced chance of a CON majority – 48%. In terms of seats the Fisher projection has:- Forecast Election Day Seats Con : 323 Lab : 280 LD : 20 Con largest party, but short of a majority by 3…

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