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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

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Early voting has been going on for a a few days now in group of key states where it’s possible from the data that is being made available to get some indication of how the WH2020 battle is going. Of course no votes have been counted yet – this is all derived from the numbers requesting to vote by mail linked and with what is known about them. In several of the States where information is available we are told…

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If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

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A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct. Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect…

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Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

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A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

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Biden moving back up on the Betfair WH2020 “next president” market

Biden moving back up on the Betfair WH2020 “next president” market

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The early absentee ballot data looks positive for the challenger The recent spate of good national and state polls for Joe Biden has led to something of a turnaround in the betting. After a long period when the Trump position got a better and better things seemed to have changed with punters now more ready to risk their cash on a Biden victory. In some states the absentee ballot process has begun and what we are seeing is many more…

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Another leading Republican declares for Biden

Another leading Republican declares for Biden

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What is significant here is that his state, Michigan, was one of those that swung to Trump at WH2016 and is an an absolute must win for Biden/Harris. Moves similar to Snyder’ are being seen almost daily by prominent Republican who don’t have the stomach to back the incumbent. The question is whether this will have an impact on other party supporters from last time. Those who make a stand are likely to prompt a stream of abuse from Trump.

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

Sporting Index have Biden on 281 Electoral College Votes in their opening spread betting markets

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The Spread Betting firm SportingIndex has now got up its WH2020 markets and the early prices have Biden on 281 ECVs which is 11 above the number required. This is a form of betting that lends itself well to elections because if you “BUY BIDEN” at the stated level the more ECVs he secures the more money that you will make. Alas it works the other way if you get it wrong. The more you are wrong the more you…

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Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump

Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump

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This has been a huge day on the White House race betting markets which saw, for the first time in months, Trump becoming the favourite on the Betfair exchange where so far nearly there have been nearly £72m worth of matched bets. Heaven know what the total will look like by November 3rd. As I write Trump is at a 47% chance on Betfair with Biden on 51% There’s a growing view amongst punters that Biden is nothing like the…

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