A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct.
Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect of picking up their winnings.
The problem is to go against the overwhelming message from the national and key state polling you need a lot better odds than the current 45% on Trump would suggest.
The latest Economist projection rates Biden’s chances at 85% which is way ahead of the current betting which has him and about 55%.
Betting is all about assessing what you think the chances are of something happening and comparing that with the odds that are available. From my perspective, at least, Biden looks under priced not overpriced.
There is another factor as well and that is what happened in the mid-term elections two years ago when the polls were giving a pretty similar picture of what they are today. The result was that the Democrats had one of their best nights ever retaking the House. It was a different matter in the Senate because about a third of the members are up each two years and they serve six-year terms and there few many potential gains for the Democrats among the states that were up in 2018.
This November it will be very different and and the Republicans will struggle to hold not only for White House but also the Senate.