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Author: Richard Nabavi

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

Where is Team Starmer? Sir Keir Starmer has a lot going for him.¬† He is credible as a PM-in-waiting, which is more than can be said for his two predecessors.¬† He seems competent, thoughtful, consistent, honourable, and honest, which are not conspicuous strengths of our current PM. ¬†Admittedly he is rather dull, and a poor public speaker, but overall voters think quite favourably of him; his net ratings were modestly positive in six out of the seven December polls. One…

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Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

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