Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention.
There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes mirror 2016 results, would produce a 269-269 tie.’
This is effectively an accumulator bet but since bookies don’t allow accumulator bets on political this is as close as it gets with this being a 50 state accumulator. Looking at the state betting markets available on Ladbrokes you can get 2/5 and 8/15 on the Democrats taking Michigan and Pennsylvania respectively, so to my mind it makes the 66/1 look attractive. (Regretfully you can’t bet on now Nebraska’s 2nd District votes, only how the state votes statewide.)
So I’m tempted to stick a small stake on an electoral college tie, time for PBers to convince me why I shouldn’t, is it better than a 1.5% chance, should I ignore my usual instinct to ignore markets where both sides of the bet isn’t offered?
The way 2020 is turning out a tie wouldn’t surprise me.